Stock market week 4/21 - 4/25: New wave will come from the first quarter reporting season

Trading is active but fragmented

At the end of last week, the VN-Index decreased slightly by 3.34 points, equivalent to 0.27%, to 1,219.12 points. Meanwhile, the HNX-Index also decreased by 0.11% to 213.1 points. Although the scores did not fluctuate much, liquidity on both exchanges recorded remarkable excitement: the total transaction value on the HOSE floor reached more than 111,000 billion VND (up 8.7%), while the HNX floor reached more than 6,600 billion VND (up 5.5%) compared to the previous week.

The VN-Index briefly touched the support level of 1,200 points before bottom-fishing demand appeared, helping the index recover in the last two sessions of the week.

Notably, liquidity remained high in all five trading sessions, with four out of five sessions on HoSE having a trading value exceeding VND20,000 billion. This is a positive signal, showing that cash flow is still strongly present in the market, although investors are cautious as the index approaches the short-term resistance zone of 1,240 points.

According to CSI Securities Company, the recent correction of VN-Index to around 1,200 points is healthy and necessary to absorb the bottom-fishing volume. CSI expects the market to recover and move towards the strong resistance level of 1,270 - 1,300 points, corresponding to the point before the time the 46% corresponding tax information was announced.

KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) is more cautious when assessing that the market is tending to move sideways, with the possibility of continuing to fluctuate strongly in the coming sessions. According to KBSV, the current market developments are consistent with the accumulation phase, waiting for new supporting information.

Meanwhile, Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) maintains a defensive stance. According to VCBS, investors should realize part of their profits with stocks that have bottomed out, while prioritizing stocks with solid fundamentals, not much affected by tariffs, good cash flow and clear ability to overcome resistance.

Asean Securities recommends that investors who accept high risks can disburse part of their investment into stocks with attractive valuations and high dividends, such as banking, securities and public investment. More cautious investors should closely monitor macro risks, especially fluctuations from the international tariff situation.

The highlight of the past week was the mixed trading between FPT and FPT Telecom (FOX) stocks. While FPT hit the floor with no buyers after the General Meeting of Shareholders, FOX increased sharply by 4%. This partly shows that market sentiment is sensitive to internal information of the enterprise, especially business prospects and growth strategies.

Another bright spot is GIL stock of Gilimex, a large textile and garment company in Ho Chi Minh City - which hit the ceiling after announcing a strong growth plan for revenue and profit, along with an attractive cash dividend rate. This is clear evidence that cash flow is ready to return to "reborn" businesses with positive prospects.

Besides, SK Group's divestment from VIC shares did not make the market too worried, because VIC's price still increased, showing that domestic investors still have great confidence in Vingroup's growth potential.

Expectations from the first quarter reporting season

Independent securities analyst Nguyen Minh Duy commented: “The market is entering an attractive valuation zone after the adjustment. Investor sentiment may improve if the first quarter business results of large enterprises exceed expectations. In particular, the banking, retail and electricity - seafood industries are forecast to have a positive first quarter of the year.”

In fact, with credit growth improving and input interest rates decreasing slightly, the banking group is likely to record positive profits in the first quarter of 2025. At the same time, the retail industry is also expected to accelerate thanks to improved purchasing power from consumer stimulus policies.

With the current market state, the market gradually forming a balance zone around 1,200-1,250 points is considered positive by many experts.

During this period, investors are advised to:

- Restructure the portfolio, prioritizing stocks with good fundamentals, reasonable valuations and benefiting from policies or industry trends.

- Avoid using too much financial leverage, because the market has not yet established a long-term uptrend.

- Take advantage of corrections to support zones to disburse exploratory investments, especially with stocks in industries expected to have positive first-quarter business results.

The stock market from April 21 to April 25 is expected to maintain a slight tug-of-war, moving towards stability in the balance zone of 1,200 - 1,250 points. Although there are many macro variables such as tariffs, inflation and international market developments, the stable cash flow and the upcoming business results reporting season will be factors supporting investor sentiment.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-tuan-214-254-song-moi-se-den-tu-mua-bao-cao-quy-i-163068.html