The stock market in March and the first quarter of 2024 was vibrant.
There were consecutive trading sessions with liquidity of 1-2 billion USD. This helped many leading stocks in the chemical, finance, banking, technology, oil and gas, and retail sectors return to their old peaks and even surpass their historical trading peaks.
Ready to overcome the 1,300 point barrier
According to Saigon-Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS), the market received a lot of information last week such as: FTSE Russell rating organization has just published a market classification report with Vietnam remaining on the watch list for upgrading from Frontier Markets to Secondary Emerging Markets.
The consumer price index (CPI) in March 2024 decreased by 0.23% compared to the previous month, increased by 1.12% compared to December 2023 and increased by 3.97% compared to the same period last year.
In the first quarter of 2024, CPI increased by 3.77% over the same period last year; core inflation increased by 2.81%. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 is estimated to increase by 5.66% over the same period last year, higher than the growth rate of the first quarter of the years 2020-2023.
However, SHS also pointed out that growth momentum is showing signs of improvement, but weak credit growth shows that the economy has low capital absorption capacity, and difficulties in the real estate market and especially the bond market have not yet had a fundamental change.
The global economic situation is also unpredictable as the global economy remains unstable and growth is low, especially in the EU region where many economies are entering recession such as France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK...
On the positive side, inflation has stabilized and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled a halt to interest rate hikes while leaving open the possibility of starting a rate cut cycle in 2024.
With the mixed macroeconomic situation, it is appropriate for the market to move towards finding a balance point to accumulate, SHS believes.
SHS believes that although the market is increasing, the VN-Index is still in an area with unusually strong fluctuations as it approaches the strong resistance of 1,300 points.
In the short term, VN-Index has met the conditions to overcome the strong resistance of 1,300 points, however, this strong resistance may require more accumulation efforts.
In that case, VN-Index may continue to fluctuate and accumulate more, but the 1,250 point threshold will be a reliable support threshold.
From a short-term perspective, the market is still moving positively, but has not yet broken through the 1,300-point barrier. The current market movement is ready to break through the barrier because the accumulation base is reliable enough. However, because the 1,300 threshold is a strong resistance, it is likely that the market still needs to accumulate more.
“In the short term, even if the market has more shaking and accumulating sessions, the next shaking session will be of an accumulation nature,” SHS observed.
In the medium term, VN-Index is on a strong upward trend but has not yet confirmed an uptrend, unless VN-Index surpasses the 1,300 point barrier.
Currently, VN-Index is forming an accumulation base before the strong resistance level of 1,300 points and is ready to overcome the resistance. However, the market may need more time to accumulate because the 1,300 point level is a strong resistance area, the longer the accumulation base lasts, the more reliable the resistance overcoming process will be.
SHS believes that the accumulation area for the attempt to overcome the resistance will be the 1,250-1,300 point zone.
In fact, the Vietnamese stock market performed very positively in March and the first quarter of 2024.
At the workshop "Choosing a portfolio - catching the big wave," Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Director of Market Strategy at VPBank Securities Company (VPBankS) said: "Vietnam's policy easing period has started from April 2023 until now. VPBankS's research shows that the correlation between policy easing and VN-Index is that when government bond yields decrease, the stock market will increase sharply and vice versa."
Compared to all past policy easing cycles, the stock market has grown well. Therefore, along with the prospect of market upgrade, Mr. Son believes that the stock market will go up in the next 1-2 years. "The stock market will have a correction period, but the main trend is up," Mr. Son said.
According to this expert, investor confidence has returned, with evidence being increased market liquidity.
If at the beginning of 2023, liquidity reached about 13,000-14,000 billion VND/session, the average for the whole year was 18,000 billion VND/session, then at the beginning of 2024, there were many trading sessions with liquidity from 1-2 billion USD.
Many stocks have surpassed their historical trading peaks, such as the leading technology stock FPT, which is currently trading around VND116,000/share.
The leading chemical stock, DGC, is also trading around 123,000/share, the highest level in DGC's listing history.
Regarding the stock market developments last week, VN-Index increased slightly by 0.18% compared to the previous week, at 1,284.09 points, and ended the first quarter of 2024 with a strong increase of 13.64% compared to the end of 2023.
Market liquidity also increased sharply in the first quarter of 2023. Last week (March 18-22) even reached a historical record of 30,000 billion VND/share per session.
HNX-Index also ended the first quarter of 2024 up 4.99% compared to the end of 2023 to 242.58 points.
The VN30 large-cap stocks group also had positive trading in the first quarter, increasing sharply by 14.62%, which was the main driving force leading the VN-Index to surpass important strong resistance zones such as 1,200 points and 1,250 points.
Last week, liquidity on HOSE only reached VND 124,049.00 billion, down 18.3% compared to the previous week, this is average liquidity.
Part of the reason came from an unprecedented incident when VNDirect Securities Corporation (VNDirect) lost connection with the exchange for all 5 sessions of the week.
Foreign investors had the strongest net selling week since the beginning of 2024 with a cumulative value of 4,563 billion VND for the whole week on the whole market; in which, the focus of foreign investors' net selling belonged to stocks such as: MSN (1,509 billion VND), VND (807 billion VND), VHM (738 billion VND)...
On the net buying side, foreign investors preferred stocks: PDR (153 billion VND), VPB (152 billion VND), SSI (151 billion VND)...
During the week, the market fluctuated within a narrow range above the support zone around 1,265 points and the resistance zone around 1,295 points.
Performance in each stock group also has contrasting colors of green and red.
In the group of industrial park and rubber real estate stocks, the codes that increased in price were DPR up 7.04%, SIP up 4.44%), D2D up 4.26%... Meanwhile, IDV down 3.09%, SNZ down 2.27%, KBC down 2.10%...
Banking stocks also diverged strongly with green and red interwoven. On the upside, TCB increased by 5.9%, VPB increased by 5.05%, LPB increased by 4.46%, NAB increased by 3.42%.... On the downside, BID decreased by 3.87%, MSB decreased by 3.32%, NVB decreased by 1.85%...
Real estate stocks performed more positively, with many stocks increasing strongly such as VRC up 24.38%, QCG up 23.53%, VPH up 7.48%, NHA up 6.54%...
VND securities stocks fell 5.56%, under strong selling pressure, with the highest liquidity in history last week when a connection failure occurred.
Most of the remaining stocks increased strongly, such as CSI increased by 6.06%, AGR increased by 5.69%, TVB increased by 4.21%, HCM increased by 3.15%... Other industry groups mostly fluctuated within a narrow range.
Experts from Kien Thiet Securities Joint Stock Company (CSI) said that the positive point is that liquidity last week remained at a high level, exceeding the 20-session average, despite the lack of liquidity at VNDirect.
Technical indicators are also supporting the market's uptrend. CSI expects the VN-Index to head towards the resistance level of 1,317-1,325 points in the coming weeks.
From a rather cautious perspective, Dragon Viet Securities Corporation (VDSC) observed that the market failed to increase in points at the end of the week and fell below the 1,286 point threshold.
Liquidity decreased compared to the previous session, showing that cash flow is cautious, but temporarily supply has not caused too much pressure.
With the current caution, it is likely that the market will continue to probe supply and demand in the 1,277-1,290 point area, before there is a more specific signal.
In fact, the Vietnamese stock market performed positively in the first quarter, amid a strong increase in the world stock market.
Wall Street closes first quarter on a high note
On March 29, the US stock market was closed for Good Friday, so this trading week on Wall Street ended on March 28.
In this session, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.12% to 39,807.37 points, but the Nasdaq Composite index lost 0.12% to 16,379.46 points. The S&P 500 index increased by 0.11% to 5,254.35 points.
This is the 22nd time the S&P 500 has recorded historical peaks in the first quarter of 2024. The S&P 500 has increased by 10.2% in the first three months of this year, helping the index achieve its strongest first-quarter growth since 2019. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq also recorded increases of 5.6% and 9.1%, respectively, in the same period.
The S&P 500 has already set 17 record highs in the first 50 trading sessions of 2024, the longest such streak since 1998. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq also hit new highs in the first quarter.
The US stock market is showing a positive start to 2024, as economic optimism and interest rate cuts combined with excitement about business opportunities in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to "stir up" a wave of growth for the stock market in the coming time.
So far, there has been no significant decline on Wall Street since the beginning of 2024. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite technology index also reached its first record high since November 2021 in late February 2024.
The key to the stock market's rise this year has been investors' belief that the U.S. economy is poised for a "soft landing" in which inflation moderates but the economy avoids a recession.
Fed policymakers recently released a new set of economic forecasts, with growth in 2024, 2025 and 2026 expected to be even stronger than previously forecast.
TB (according to VNA)Source
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