ANTD.VN - The State Bank's leaders said they are "leaving open" the possibility of considering continuing to maintain the current interest rate policy or reducing interest rates in favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Exchange rate, inflation is no longer a big problem
According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), in the first 9 months of 2024, the domestic and global economies will have mixed advantages and disadvantages. Inflation in many countries around the world continues to cool down although it is still unpredictable, reinforcing the trend of lowering interest rates by central banks. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has caused the international USD index to fall sharply.
Domestically, although there are still many difficulties and challenges, especially the damage caused by storm No. 3 in the northern localities, with the drastic and close direction of the Government and the Prime Minister, economic growth in the first 9 months of 2024 maintained a positive trend, with each quarter higher than the previous quarter. Inflation was appropriately controlled and actively supported economic growth.
The business situation of enterprises has also improved, most enterprises have resolved basic difficulties from the Covid-19 period, many orders of enterprises have resumed, and business activities have expanded.
In that context, monetary policy management is somewhat "easier". Regarding interest rates, the State Bank continues to maintain the operating interest rates, and the lending interest rate level continues to decrease compared to the end of 2023.
The exchange rate fluctuates flexibly in both directions, increasing/decreasing, in accordance with market conditions. “Previously, there was a time when VND depreciated by 5-6% compared to USD, but now it is only about 1-2%, a very low fluctuation. This has created confidence for the market and foreign investors,” said Deputy Governor Dao Minh Tu.
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Pressure on monetary policy management has eased considerably. |
Regarding capital supply for the economy, according to the leader of the State Bank, by the end of September, credit growth of the whole economy reached about 9%, much higher than the end of August thanks to a number of large projects disbursed in the last period of the third quarter. Compared to the same period in 2023, credit growth of the whole economy increased by more than 16%, to about 14.7 million billion VND.
Although credit growth is higher than capital mobilization (capital mobilization increased by 5.28%, equivalent to 14.5 billion VND), the SBV leader said that the liquidity of the banking system is still abundant, ready to meet the capital needs of the economy.
Leaving open the possibility of further reduction in operating interest rates
With more favorable conditions, many experts believe that the State Bank will have more room to loosen monetary policy, however, the possibility of reducing operating interest rates is rarely mentioned by experts.
According to UOB Bank experts, with inflation easing, the USD expected to weaken further after the Fed's easing policy and with the negative impacts spreading after Typhoon Yagi, the possibility of the SBV shifting to easing monetary policy will be considered more than before.
However, UOB believes that the SBV is likely to adopt a more targeted approach to support individuals and businesses affected by Typhoon No. 3 instead of deploying a nationwide tool such as cutting interest rates.
“Therefore, we predict that the SBV will maintain the refinancing rate at the current level of 4.5% while focusing on promoting credit growth and other support measures,” these banking experts commented.
Some experts also believe that it is not necessary to change the operating interest rate at this time. According to Associate Professor, Dr. Pham The Anh, Head of the Faculty of Economics (National Economics University), the current interest rate is suitable for the general situation, the State Bank should not lower interest rates in the near future. Domestic interest rates depend not only on the Fed's policy, but also on many other factors, including the inflation rate.
Dr. Can Van Luc, an economic expert, also acknowledged that the State Bank has continuously reduced operating interest rates in 2023 in the context of many countries increasing interest rates, which means it has gone ahead and taken the lead. This, according to the expert, is consistent with the production and business context of our country in 2023, especially in the first 9 months of the year, when the economy faced many disadvantages.
With the current operating interest rate, Dr. Can Van Luc said that it is suitable for the domestic production and business situation. "Therefore, it is not necessary to change the operating interest rate, because in fact the operating interest rate is at its lowest level in many years," the expert said.
On the management side, according to Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Dao Minh Tu, from now until the end of the year, the State Bank of Vietnam will continue to operate stable interest rate and exchange rate policies to ensure policy harmony.
"The State Bank's viewpoint is to operate an open monetary policy to support more capital for the economy. The State Bank will continuously support capital and ensure liquidity for banks.
In the context of macroeconomic conditions that ensure inflation, support growth, and ensure exchange rate relations, we will "leave open" the possibility of reviewing the operating interest rate in the direction of continuing to maintain it as it is now or reducing interest rates in the context of ensuring macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, exchange rates, and supporting growth," said Deputy Governor Dao Minh Tu.
Source: https://www.anninhthudo.vn/them-du-dia-noi-long-tien-te-lai-suat-dieu-hanh-lieu-co-giam-them-post592961.antd
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