Export challenges

The new export value target has been adjusted by Tien Giang province to ensure the economic growth plan of 8% or more by 2025, reaching 7 billion USD. This is not too difficult a number if there were not many recent adverse factors.

Looking at the overall aspect, in the first quarter of 2025, the export value of Tien Giang goods reached 1.4 billion USD, reaching 20% of the plan, up 1.5% over the same period; in which, foreign-invested enterprises accounted for more than 88% of the total export turnover of the province. However, from the achieved data as well as recorded from practice, it can be seen that Tien Giang's export turnover will face many challenges related to geopolitical factors, trade barriers, and tariffs.

The export situation is affected by more adverse factors.

The first factor is related to the export fruit and vegetable industry. Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2025, Tien Giang enterprises exported only 7,868 tons of this industry and reached 18.7 million USD, down nearly 27% in volume and nearly 23% in value. One of the main reasons is the decline in durian exports, one of Tien Giang's main fruits, which has contributed to the growth of Tien Giang's fruit and vegetable industry in recent years.

The value of exported durian has decreased largely due to China, one of the main markets, increasing control over the quality of goods, especially yellow O. According to statistics, the total export turnover of durian in the first two months of the year of the whole country only reached 14.7 thousand tons, with a turnover of 52.7 million USD, down more than 62% in volume and down 69.4% in turnover compared to the same period last year.

The decline was mainly due to durian exports to the leading consumer market, China, plummeting nearly 83% in the first two months of the year to just $27.1 million. China’s market share in Vietnam’s total durian exports also fell to more than 51% from nearly 92% in the same period last year.

One of the noteworthy points is that foreign-invested enterprises account for a large proportion of the export structure of Tien Giang province. However, in recent days, the unfavorable factors related to the reciprocal tax situation proposed by the US will also become a big challenge if it is officially applied.

Many product groups will be affected by the US reciprocal tax policy.

According to statistics from the Department of Industry and Trade of Tien Giang province, in 2024, Tien Giang province's export turnover reached more than 6.5 billion USD, of which exports to the US market accounted for nearly 23%. Thus, if the US applies reciprocal tax rates, Tien Giang's main export products to the US such as: Seafood (especially pangasius), fruits (durian, coconut water, etc.), textiles, footwear, etc. will lose their competitive advantage due to high prices after tax. Many orders from the US may be canceled or transferred to other countries that are not subject to tax.

However, from another perspective, Tien Giang's exports also have many favorable factors in other markets and industries. GODACO General Director Nguyen Van Dao analyzed that in the first 3 months of the year, exports in the seafood industry of the whole country in general and GODACO in particular also achieved a growth rate of 15% - 20% in most production and business index groups. "If there are no unusual developments in the market or disadvantages in tariffs of the US market, the export situation this year will be more positive. If it is favorable like that, the company will achieve the target as planned and Tien Giang will also achieve the expected growth rate" - Mr. Nguyen Van Dao analyzed further.

With what has happened, is happening and forecasting the situation, Director of the Department of Industry and Trade of Tien Giang province Luu Van Phi also commented that of course, when the US imposes reciprocal tariffs on exported goods from Vietnam, it will affect not only Tien Giang's businesses but also the whole country. According to the 2025 plan, Tien Giang province is expected to achieve an export turnover of 7 billion USD, so the imposition of high tariffs on Vietnamese goods by the US will also greatly affect Tien Giang's export target. Therefore, the Department of Industry and Trade of Tien Giang province will closely monitor the situation to advise the People's Committee of Tien Giang province to propose appropriate solutions to support businesses to achieve the set export target.

However, the latest information released is that the US has extended the application of reciprocal tariffs for another 90 days for many countries around the world, including Vietnam. Many experts have commented that this is an important period of time to implement trade solutions through negotiations. This also leaves open the hope that the US will change the reciprocal tariff rates for goods of other countries, including Vietnam. And if this happens, the export challenge for Tien Giang enterprises in particular and the whole country in general will basically be untied.

Source: https://baoapbac.vn/kinh-te/202504/thach-thuc-xuat-khau-1039509/