The power of "deterrence" in protecting peace and stability in the East Sea

Amid China's flexing of its muscles in the South China Sea, a newly formed grouping with the Philippines' participation will create a new balance.

The East Sea was an important topic of discussion at the meeting between the four defense ministers of the US, Australia, Japan and the Philippines in Hawaii on May 2. (Source: Kyodo)

On May 9, the Lowy Institute website published an article by renowned Philippine international relations scholar Richard Javad Heydarian, arguing that in the context of China's show of strength in the East Sea, a newly formed group - with the Philippines' participation - will create a new balance.

New balance

A few days ago, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hosted his counterparts from three allied countries, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, in Hawaii - the headquarters of the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM).

At this second meeting, the four defense ministers emphasized their commitment to “advancing a shared vision of a free, open, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.” They previously met on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in 2023.

Although the four defense leaders did not mention China by name, the main purpose of this new "Quad" group is to target China.

In fact, this meeting took place not long after the historic four-way joint patrol in the South China Sea amid Beijing's increasingly assertive stance against the Philippines in the disputed waters.

Secretary Austin said the four-way meeting was an important step in “charting an ambitious roadmap” toward a rules-based order in Asia, and more importantly, underscoring the importance of “deterrence” in maintaining peace and stability in the region.

The crystallization of the “New Quad” grouping is a testament to the growing importance of “sub-multilateral” cooperation in the Indo-Pacific as well as the gradual but dramatic changes in the Philippines’ strategic outlook.

The emergence of the “New Quad” grouping is a testament to the growing importance of “sub-multilateral” cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. (Photo: Getty Images)

Preventing "gray zone" tactics

The emergence of the Quad, comprising the US, Japan, India and Australia, cannot be underestimated.

The group has demonstrated the feasibility of flexible, issue-specific cooperation in the face of small but potentially devastating threats. However, recent developments have exposed its limitations. Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said at the recent Munich Security Conference that the Quad “does not have a treaty, a structure, a secretariat” because it is essentially about “four countries with common interests, common values, countries in the four corners of the Indo-Pacific.”

In the “New Quad” group, the Philippines has openly adopted the US’s “comprehensive deterrence” strategy towards China. The Philippines has also actively dealt with China in the East Sea through legal lawsuits and increased on-the-ground response.

The “new Quad” is an outgrowth of a series of smaller US-led initiatives with treaty allies, most notably the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) and Japan-Philippines-US (JAPHUS) trilateral groups.

As the “new Quad” evolves, it will be important to institutionalize this promising partnership through joint patrols in the South China Sea and across the Western Pacific, expanded maritime security and intelligence sharing, and joint efforts to accelerate the Philippines’ military modernization.

In the short term, however, the obvious challenge is to deter China’s increasingly aggressive “gray zone” tactics. In addition to reiterating its mutual defense treaty obligations with the Philippines, the Biden administration must coordinate a variety of measures to counter China in the disputed waters.

It can be seen that while the Philippines sees the "New Quad" as an effort to protect its sovereignty and maintain order at sea, China sees the new group as part of the US strategy to contain Beijing. The consequence in the near future will likely be prolonged escalation of tensions in the East Sea.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/vien-lowy-suc-manh-cua-ran-de-trong-bao-ve-hoa-binh-on-dinh-o-bien-dong-270697.html