Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam's economy to grow at 7.7% in the first quarter

In its recently released macroeconomic report on Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP to grow strongly at 7.7% in the first quarter of 2025 (up from 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024). The forecast for GDP growth for the whole year of 2025 remains at 6.7%, with growth expected to be adjusted in the second half of the year.

Vietnam’s economic outlook continues to be strengthened by its deep integration into global trade networks through numerous signed free trade agreements, along with a steady flow of foreign direct investment (FDI). These factors continue to enhance Vietnam’s position in the global production and export chain.

Key economic indicators are forecast to stabilize in March. Retail sales growth is estimated to have increased by 6.2% year-on-year (9.4% year-on-year in February). Export growth is likely to have increased by 8.2% year-on-year due to a higher base. Electronics exports are likely to continue to improve.

Meanwhile, imports and industrial production are forecast to increase by 6.0% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively. The monthly trade balance is estimated to have a surplus of US$3.7 billion in March, after recording a deficit of nearly US$1.6 billion in February.

Inflation is forecast at 3.4% in March, compared with 2.9% in February. If the trend of rising inflationary pressures continues, this could pose a challenge to monetary policy.

Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank commented: “While Vietnam’s economic growth remains solid, trade risks and currency fluctuations may impact policy decisions. Vietnam may consider adopting a flexible monetary policy to ensure financial stability and respond flexibly to possible economic fluctuations.”

Mr. Tim Leelahaphan

Tomorrow (April 6, 2025), official statistics on economic indicators for March and the first quarter will be announced by the General Statistics Office, Ministry of Finance.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/standard-chartered-du-bao-kinh-te-viet-nam-tang-truong-o-muc-77-trong-quy-i-162330.html