Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won 295 electoral votes, surpassing the minimum 270 needed to declare victory in the 2024 US presidential election. This result ended the fierce race between Mr. Trump and his opponent Kamala Harris, and opened a new path for the new owner of the White House.
Dan Tri Newspaper had a conversation with Mr. Nguyen Quoc Cuong, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs , former Vietnamese Ambassador to the US to comment on this special event.
Dear Ambassador Nguyen Quoc Cuong, in his victory speech after the election on November 5, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump declared that he had made history by returning to the White House after 4 years. So, in your opinion, what made Mr. Trump win this year's election? What does this victory mean for the United States in the current context?
– Mr. Trump made history, bringing him back to the White House with a victory that I consider quite spectacular. Mr. Trump not only won the electoral votes, but looking back at the 7 battleground states, Mr. Trump won in 6 states.
Not only did Trump win against Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, but his Republican Party also won back a majority in the Senate for the first time in years. Although the results are not yet final, it is likely that the Republicans will retain their majority in the House of Representatives. So Trump won the election, and the Republicans are likely to win majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. This is a very spectacular victory.
With Mr. Trump’s victory, the United States will have many changes in the next term of the US president. The current term is the term of President Joe Biden, Democratic Party, while the upcoming term is the term of President Donald Trump, Republican Party, so there will be differences in both domestic and foreign policies. This is probably an important change for the United States and will have an impact on international relations in the coming time.
There are many reasons for Mr. Trump's stunning victory.
The first reason , and the most important reason, is the rise of conservatism, the far-right movement, and isolationism in the US. “Make America Great Again” is not just a slogan, but also a movement in the US.
The far-right movement is not the first to appear, but it was this movement that helped Mr. Trump win his first term and continued to help him win this year's election.
Looking at the world , we can see that the far-right and conservative movements have won different victories at different levels of elections in countries around the world. In 2023-2024, the far-right movement also won victories in countries such as Germany, Hungary, Austria, and France. Even in the European Parliament elections, the right wing also won important victories. This shows the general trend of increasing conservatism and protectionism in the coming time.
Second , in terms of Mr. Trump himself, the agenda he put forward for this election has gone into issues that American voters are very interested in. Among these issues, the economy and immigration are two important issues that Mr. Trump has convinced American voters to vote for him.
On the economic front, under President Joe Biden, the US economy is on a fairly good growth trajectory, with GDP growing continuously for many consecutive quarters. US GDP under Biden is even higher than under Trump.
However, there are two very important indicators that Americans care about: average household income and inflation.
The median household income index under Mr. Biden has not increased as much as under Mr. Trump. The median household income in the US under Mr. Trump has increased by more than 8%, while under Mr. Biden it has increased by only 1-1.3%.
Under Trump, the consumer price index increased by about 8%, but during Biden's term in office over the past 4 years, the consumer price index has increased by about 18-20%. Many Americans have complained about rising prices, especially the prices of essential items for daily life such as food prices, oil prices, etc. This is an issue that Trump focused on very strongly during the election campaign.
Previous polls also assessed that Mr. Trump is better able to lead the US economy than President Biden and Vice President Harris.
Regarding immigration, American voters have not forgotten Mr. Trump's drastic measures. He also pledged that if elected, he would carry out a mass deportation of illegal immigrants in the US, which according to current calculations is about 10 million people. Mr. Trump warned that this would be the largest deportation of illegal immigrants in history. Many American voters also support this policy of Mr. Trump.
In short, economic and immigration policies have helped Mr. Trump gain great support from American voters. Even traditional voters who used to vote for the Democrats, such as Latino voters, voted for Mr. Trump this time. This is also a step back for the Democratic Party in this election, and the leadership of the Democratic Party has to admit it.
Third reason , looking deeper into personal factors, Mr. Trump is a very experienced politician with a lot of political experience. He was once the president of the United States and also a TV star. Therefore, he has a lot of experience in turning his seemingly weak points into strengths.
Mr. Trump has faced many legal troubles, but he has denied them all, asserting his complete innocence. Mr. Trump believes that this is a "witch hunt" and a political trick aimed at him.
Mr. Trump also built a very good image in the two failed assassination attempts, especially the image of him being shot in the ear, but still standing up and shouting "continue fighting". This image shows his very strong character, ready to sacrifice personal interests for the interests of America.
In the debate with Ms. Harris, after the first debate ended, Mr. Trump realized that Ms. Harris was not inferior to him in debate, so he did not participate in the next debate to avoid giving his opponent an advantage. This is also a very clever tactic of Mr. Trump.
What does the Ambassador predict about Mr. Trump's next steps in his first days in office? How will Mr. Trump likely build his cabinet?
– As I have analyzed, this is not only a victory for Mr. Trump and the Republican Party, but also a victory for the far-right movement. Obviously, Mr. Trump’s policies in his first term were supported and highly appreciated by many American voters.
Mr. Trump once said that one of his mistakes, if any, in his first term was that he sometimes chose people incorrectly. Mr. Trump constantly changed his cabinet during his first term.
In this term, I think Mr. Trump will choose more conservative and far-right personnel, while the number of moderate right-wingers will be fewer in Mr. Trump's new cabinet.
There are some notable figures who appeared in Trump’s first term and are expected to return in the new term, including former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who is considered conservative, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Senator JD Vance, who was chosen by Trump as vice president, is also a very conservative person. Some views say that on many issues, Mr. Vance is even more conservative than Mr. Trump. I think that in the second term, the policies of the Trump administration will be more far-right and conservative.
According to the Ambassador, how will Mr. Trump's domestic policies be different from Mr. Biden's in the next 4 years? Will these policies be a continuation of what Mr. Trump did in his first term?
– Mr. Trump’s domestic policy is not only completely different from Mr. Biden’s domestic policy, but also different from his first term. Mr. Trump’s policy in the next term will have continuity and difference from his first term.
In his first term, Trump tried to fulfill all the promises he made during his campaign. In his second term, Trump will continue to do so. Especially with his recent spectacular victory and his own political capital, as well as his victories in the Senate and the House of Representatives, Trump will have more foundation, power and ability to implement his policies more decisively in his second term.
Domestically, one of the important policies that Mr. Trump has raised is tax cuts. One of Mr. Trump's top priorities is to extend the tax cut law, which is scheduled to expire in 2025. This is the law that Mr. Trump considers an outstanding achievement in his first term. This policy allows for stronger tax cuts for businesses, tax cuts for people and a series of reduction policies such as cutting social benefits or further narrowing the group of beneficiaries of social benefits compared to the Biden administration...
The next domestic policy that Mr. Trump is particularly interested in is related to immigration. This policy will tighten immigration and deport illegal immigrants from the US.
These are priority policies in the early stages, fulfilling the commitments that Mr. Trump made.
According to the Ambassador, what will US foreign policy be like in the next 4 years when Mr. Trump takes office?
– Many political analysts in the US say that Mr. Trump will soon bring back the agenda under the slogan "America First" with even stronger measures.
Mr Trump has repeatedly said he does not support the climate change agreement. Mr Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change during his first term and this could happen again in his next term.
Mr. Trump also questioned the effectiveness of current international institutions and the US may limit its participation in these institutions when Mr. Trump returns to the White House.
For NATO as well as other US allies such as Japan, South Korea, etc., Mr. Trump will likely increase pressure to ask these countries to share responsibility, forcing them to contribute more defense costs. For Mr. Trump, the US is not a protective umbrella, but countries also need to be responsible for contributing.
In particular, in terms of international trade, I think there will be significant changes under Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump's close advisers all believe that the current World Trade Organization (WTO) is ineffective, so they warn that the US should withdraw from this system.
Mr. Trump declared that if he wins the election, he will impose taxes on foreign goods imported into the US, for example, Chinese goods could be taxed at about 60% - a very high rate. Mr. Trump also threatened to impose a 10-20% tax on goods from other countries, including allies. It is likely that Mr. Trump will carry out this statement. Prestigious economic organizations in the world have released a list of countries that are likely to suffer more if Mr. Trump takes office and implements international trade policies.
In terms of foreign relations, Mr. Trump favors one-on-one negotiations. His threat of high tariffs or trade sanctions may be a tactic to negotiate with individual countries. This is also a business tactic that Mr. Trump has applied since becoming president.
I think that, in Mr. Trump's second term, strategic competition between major countries, especially between the US and China, will be more intense and the element of surprise cannot be ruled out.
Many US allies, including NATO, Japan, South Korea, etc., have expressed concern about Mr. Trump's tough policy when he returns to the White House.
Does the Ambassador think that the free and open Indo-Pacific strategy that Mr. Trump introduced in 2017 will continue to be implemented in the next term?
– Mr. Trump is the one who proposed the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy and Mr. Biden has taken over that strategy. I think that with the current importance of the Indo-Pacific, a leading dynamic development region in the world and a place where the US has great interests, the US will certainly continue to pay attention to this region and implement the strategy. Although the form may be different, the core content of the strategy remains unchanged.
Strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific is intensifying. In the coming time, Mr. Trump may introduce tough measures, but countries also have measures to deal with it.
Mr. Trump once declared that there would be no wars if he became president. According to the Ambassador, can the world's hot spots cool down when Mr. Trump becomes the new US president?
– It is difficult to confirm whether tensions will cool down at hot spots when Mr. Trump returns to the White House. Mr. Trump once promised that if he became president, he would resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours. However, so far it is unclear how he will resolve it.
Some US foreign policy analysts believe that even before Mr. Trump takes office in January 2025, he will have negotiations with relevant parties such as Russia, Ukraine, etc. Let's wait and see how Mr. Trump will act.
Regarding the conflict in the Middle East, during his first term, Mr. Trump expressed strong support for Israel, so the Jewish and Israeli communities also supported Mr. Trump's return to power. Mr. Trump also acted as a mediator between Israel and several Middle Eastern countries.
If Mr. Trump can end conflicts and bring peace to the world, I will support Mr. Trump to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
As the former Vietnamese Ambassador to the US, do you think the US policy towards Vietnam will change when Mr. Trump returns to the White House, especially after the two countries upgraded their relationship last year?
– Mr. Trump visited Vietnam twice during his term and he was the first US president to visit Vietnam in his first term. In such meetings, Mr. Trump always affirmed his desire to continue promoting relations with Vietnam, affirming that the US supports Vietnam’s independence, self-reliance, strength, prosperity, and respects Vietnam’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and political system. These are very basic and important principles in bilateral relations.
There are many differences between the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States in terms of domestic and foreign affairs. However, in terms of relations with Vietnam, whether under a Democratic or Republican president, they have a fairly unified view, which is to strengthen and develop relations with Vietnam. The contents that both sides have committed to, whether under a Democratic or Republican president, affirm that the United States supports an independent, self-reliant, powerful, prosperous Vietnam, and respects Vietnam's independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political system.
Based on those commitments and principles, I believe that under President Trump’s second term, the Vietnam-US relationship will continue to develop strongly and effectively, especially when the two countries have upgraded their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. I believe that there are many potential areas in which the two countries can cooperate, from politics and diplomacy, economics and trade, science and technology, education and training, etc.
However, the Vietnam-US economic and trade relations in the coming time may encounter some difficulties and obstacles that both sides need to make efforts to overcome. Vietnam needs to proactively approach the Trump administration from the beginning, proactively propose solutions with the US side to resolve each other's difficulties and concerns so that the economic and trade relations in particular and the Vietnam-US relations in general can develop smoothly and strongly in the coming time.
Thank you very much!
Photo: Huu Nghi - Video: Pham Tien, Minh Quang
Content: Thanh Dat
Dantri.com.vn
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/quan-he-viet-my-se-tiep-tuc-phat-trien-manh-me-duoi-thoi-tong-thong-trump-20241107193309446.htm
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