What does OPEC predict about the global oil market in 2024?

DNVN - On October 14, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) officially lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for both 2024 and 2025. This is the organization's third consecutive downward adjustment to the "black gold" market.

An oil refinery on Khark Island off the Gulf coast. Photo: AFP/ VNA

According to OPEC's monthly report, global oil demand in 2024 is expected to increase by 1.93 million barrels per day, down from the 2.03 million barrels per day forecast last month. For 2025, OPEC also revised the growth rate from 1.74 million barrels per day to 1.64 million barrels per day. Notably, China is the country with the largest cut, with the forecast reduced from 650,000 barrels per day to 580,000 barrels per day.

As of August 2024, OPEC maintained its growth forecast first published in July 2023. However, in the same month, the organization recorded a continued decline in diesel consumption as economic activity slowed, mainly due to a reduction in construction and housing projects, as well as a shift to liquefied natural gas (LNG) for heavy-duty trucks instead of petroleum-based diesel fuel.

OPEC said that although government stimulus measures are likely to support oil demand in the fourth quarter, the "black gold" is facing many challenges from global economic difficulties and the trend of switching to cleaner, more environmentally friendly fuel sources.

The less optimistic outlook suggests that OPEC+ (which includes OPEC and its partners) is facing a difficult situation. For example, Russia plans to increase oil production in December after previously delaying it amid falling crude prices.

Immediately after OPEC released the report, world oil prices fell about 2%, with North Sea Brent crude trading below $78 a barrel.

Analysts also have different forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024, largely due to differences in China and the pace of the global shift to cleaner fuels. OPEC’s current production forecast remains high, far from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) production cut target. OPEC also notes that this year’s oil demand growth is still above the historical average of 1.4 million barrels per day, which was recorded before the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline in fuel demand.

Cao Thong (t/h)

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/quoc-te/opec-du-bao-ra-sao-ve-thi-truong-dau-mo-toan-cau-nam-2024/20241015091318865