OECD raises economic growth outlook, warns against protectionism.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts that the global economy will grow steadily over the next two years if protectionism does not disrupt the trade recovery process.

In its latest economic outlook report published on December 4th, the OECD forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% this year, and 3.3% in both 2025 and 2026.

Growth forecasts for next year are slightly higher than the OECD's most recent report in September, which projected global economic growth of 3.2% this year and in 2025. The report, published on December 4th, noted that after a slowdown in global trade last year, the situation is recovering, with trade volume growth expected to reach 3.6% next year, despite measures restricting import flows.

PSA International Port in Singapore

"Rising trade tensions and moves toward protectionism could disrupt supply chains, drive up consumer prices, and negatively impact growth," the OECD report stated.

Global trade prospects are being questioned as US President-elect Donald Trump publicly announces his intention to increase tariffs on many major trading partners. Specifically for the US, the OECD forecasts that US growth will slow from 2.8% this year to 2.4% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, partly due to a stable job market and reduced spending.

For China, the world's second-largest economy, growth is projected to slow from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. The OECD notes that despite Beijing's loose monetary and fiscal policies, consumers are increasingly saving as a precaution against economic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, in the eurozone, investment activity will benefit from central bank easing measures that could support increased consumer spending, thereby boosting the region's growth from 0.8% this year to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. During the same period, UK growth is projected to rise from 0.9% to 1.7%, before falling to 1.3%.

The OECD says that as inflation falls, most major central banks around the world will gradually become more cautious in easing monetary policy. In addition, governments are expected to take decisive action to address public debt as public spending comes under pressure.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/oecd-nang-trien-vong-tang-truong-kinh-te-canh-bao-ve-chu-nghia-bao-ho-185241204211012295.htm