Vietnam's agriculture, forestry and fisheries: Strong growth, still worried about 3 tax scenarios

Total export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the first quarter reached 15.72 billion USD. (Illustrative photo. Source: VNA)

A representative of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment said that in the first quarter of 2025, the growth rate of agriculture, forestry and fishery reached 3.74% - this is the highest growth rate in the first quarter of the past 4 years. The export turnover of these industries reached 15.72 billion USD; the trade surplus reached nearly 4.4 billion USD. This result continues to strengthen the position of Vietnam's agriculture, forestry and fishery in the world market.

However, in the past 3 months, agriculture, forestry and fishery have also faced many difficulties that need to be resolved. Especially the situation of "trade war" in the world , typically the US announced information about imposing tax of up to 46% on Vietnam; prices of some export items decreased...

Strengthening position in the world market

Regarding the production situation in the first 3 months of 2025, Director of the Department of Planning and Finance (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment) Dang Ngoc Diep said that in the context of organizational mergers and personnel changes, in the first quarter, the agricultural and environmental sectors still recorded many positive results.

Specifically, the total export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the first quarter reached 15.72 billion USD, up 13.1% over the same period. Of which, agricultural products were 8.53 billion USD, up 12.2%; forestry products were 4.21 billion USD, up 11.2%; aquatic products were 2.29 billion USD, up 18.1%; livestock products were 131.3 million USD, up 18.5%; production inputs were up 19.6%.

“Trade surplus of nearly 4.4 billion USD, up 13.1% over the same period last year,” Mr. Diep emphasized that this is a relatively good result in the context of the socio-economic situation in the past 3 months with many difficulties and problems that need to be resolved.

Typically, diseases on crops and livestock pose unpredictable risks; prices of some export products have decreased; some countries have tightened import standards and increased the frequency of inspection of imported agricultural products.

Especially the situation of “trade war” in the world. Recently, the United States announced the application of reciprocal tax on imported goods from other countries, including reciprocal tax on Vietnam up to 46%. This information has become a big “shock” for agricultural, forestry and fishery enterprises, especially enterprises in the wood processing and exporting industry to the US.

Looking at the reality from the forestry sector, Mr. Tran Quang Bao - Director of the Department of Forestry and Forestry said that in the first quarter of 2025, the growth indicators of the forestry sector (from afforestation, scattered tree planting, forest protection, forest fire prevention and fighting, timber exploitation, wood and forest product export, payment for forest environmental services) basically achieved positive results.

For example, the forestry sector recorded many positive results with more than 49,000 hectares of newly planted forests, an increase of 12.6%; exploited wood output reached over 4.3 million m3, an increase of 16.6%; and collected more than 836 billion VND in forest environmental services. In particular, the export value of wood and forest products increased, with a trade surplus of about 3.5 billion USD.

However, Mr. Bao also said that through understanding the trade situation (especially the US imposing reciprocal tariffs on dozens of economies, including Vietnam), the import-export activities of some businesses are also somewhat affected, because they do not have specific information to make adjustments.

Regarding forest fires and deforestation, the head of the Department of Forestry and Forest Protection said that according to data, in the first quarter of 2025, the number of cases and the scale of damaged areas have decreased. However, the updated data is incomplete, especially the 40 hectares of forest from two recent fires in Quang Ninh.

3 growth scenarios from tax policy

A representative of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment also said that one of the issues that has a major impact on the "psychology" of agricultural, forestry and fishery enterprises in the first quarter of 2025 is the information about the imposition of a reciprocal tax of up to 56% from the US.

Faced with that situation, recently, the leaders of the Party, State and Government have discussed and negotiated, and recently President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of high reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trade partners, after which an official decision will be made.

Sharing more about the response direction, Mr. Dang Ngoc Diep, Director of the Department of Planning and Finance (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), said that implementing the direction of the Minister and Deputy Ministers, this unit has built growth scenarios to respond to the situation of US tariffs.

Specifically, the Department of Planning and Finance predicts that after 90 days, if the US imposes a 0% tax, it will basically not affect the industry's growth. Even with the current growth rate, the second quarter will continue to achieve the growth target.

“The second scenario is that after 90 days, if the US imposes a 2% tax, exports will be affected by about 10.7% and the growth rate will decrease by 0.15 to 0.2%. The third scenario, after 90 days, if the US continues to impose a 46% tax, our growth rate will decrease by about 0.3-0.4%,” Mr. Diep shared.

Regarding the above scenarios, Mr. Diep said that recently, Minister of Agriculture and Environment Do Duc Duy attended a Government meeting and reported, and the leaders of the ministries highly appreciated them. Mr. Diep even said that the Ministry of Finance asked for the above scenarios to "put them into a book" as documents.

Mr. Tran Quang Bao - Director of the Department of Forestry and Forest Protection, also said that after receiving information that the US postponed the tax for 90 days, the department, together with the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association, developed a detailed outline of the overall import-export situation with the US, to provide a report to the negotiating delegation.

In addition, at the end of phase 1 of the investigation into the import of wood materials into the United States, Mr. Bao said that the Department of Forestry and Forestry together with Vietnamese enterprises have conducted explanations. Phase 2 is the "hearing" phase.

“Experience from 2021 to now shows that there have been 3 anti-dumping investigations, related to legal wood and wood imports from abroad. All of these cases have been concluded and there have been no problems. The main requirement from the US is to ask Vietnamese enterprises to declare and submit all types of documents for 5 years, so that they can be traced when necessary,” Mr. Bao shared and emphasized the priority point of the ministry and department is to say no to fraud, so the more transparent the better.

Regarding the tasks in the second quarter of 2025 as well as in the coming time, the representative of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment said that the ministry will continue to direct and strive to complete the growth target of the industry and the total import-export turnover of agriculture, forestry and fishery products.

Accordingly, the ministry will handle issues to expand the export market for agricultural, forestry and fishery products, such as: Cadmium residue in durian exported to China; boosting exports to Japan and the EU; "opening" new markets with great potential such as: Halal Muslim countries, the Middle East, India, Korea, Africa...

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment also monitors the developments of the US tax imposition, promotes negotiations with the US as well as applies positive solutions to minimize adverse impacts on businesses and farmers; coordinates to support the protection of trademarks and geographical indications for potential Vietnamese export products abroad.

In addition, the State management agency in the field of agriculture and environment will also strengthen inspections against IUU fishing in localities; organize the National Steering Committee Conference on IUU; continue to report to the European Commission on the situation and results of combating IUU fishing, implementing the EC's recommendations; report to the Prime Minister on the Project on fisheries, fishermen, and fishing grounds until 2030, with a vision to 2045./.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/nong-lam-thuy-san-viet-nam-tang-truong-manh-van-lo-boi-3-kich-ban-ap-thue-3353305.html