What does a second Trump term mean for China?

Mr Trump's return could see tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods, which could severely impact growth in the world's second-largest economy and upend global supply chains with technology controls, adding to tensions in the already volatile relationship between the superpowers.

However, Mr Trump’s protectionist trade stance and transactional approach to foreign policy could also weaken US alliances and global leadership, creating an opportunity for China to fill the void left by US withdrawal and shape an alternative world order.

President-elect Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. (Photo: Reuters)

“ Trump’s return to power certainly brings opportunities and risks to China. But ultimately, whether it leads to more risks or opportunities depends on how the two sides interact,” said Shen Dingli, a foreign policy analyst in Shanghai.

Officially, China has sought to play down Trump’s victory. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said on November 6 that it “respects ” the US choice. Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Trump on November 7. Trump has praised Xi and called the Chinese leader “a very good friend” even as US-China relations have deteriorated under his presidency.

According to a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Mr. Xi told President-elect Donald Trump that China and the United States could “find the right way” to “get along in the new era.” However, Beijing may be preparing for the impact and instability in its relationship with the United States under Mr. Trump.

“ Trump is a very erratic person. It is still unclear whether he will implement the policies he promised during the election campaign and whether he will continue with the same agenda as his first term,” said Liu Dongshu, associate professor of international affairs at the City University of Hong Kong.

Sky-high tariffs

During Donald Trump’s first term, with a pledge to “Make America Great Again,” he launched a bitter trade war with China, blacklisted the country’s telecommunications giant Huawei on national security grounds, and blamed Beijing for the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of Trump’s first term, bilateral relations between the United States and China had plummeted to their lowest point in decades.

This time, Mr. Trump threatened during the election campaign to impose a 60% tariff on all goods made in China and revoke the country’s “permanent normal trade relations” status, which has given China its most favorable trade terms with the United States in more than two decades.

The measure, if implemented, could deal a heavy blow to an economy already hit by a property crisis, falling consumer demand and rising local government debt.

Investment bank Macquarie estimates that at 60%, tariffs could cut the country's economic growth by up to 2 percentage points, or just under half of China's expected full-year economic growth rate of 5%.

“ Trade war 2.0 could end China’s ongoing growth model, in which exports and manufacturing are the main growth drivers,” Larry Hu, China economist at Macquarie, said in a research note on Nov. 6.

In fact, tariffs on imports will hurt consumers in the country imposing the tariffs, as well as businesses that rely on imported raw materials and intermediate goods to manufacture finished products. A significant escalation of trade tensions could hurt not only China and the United States, but also other countries involved in global supply chains.

In addition, Mr Trump's erratic and unconventional approach to policymaking has added to Beijing's sense of uncertainty.

Mr. Daniel Russel, Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, commented that Mr. Trump began his first term with sympathy for Mr. Xi Jinping before “ imposing tariffs and then criticizing Beijing during the pandemic.”

“ So Beijing is likely to approach Trump cautiously, testing the waters to determine what to expect from Trump and whether there are any opportunities to exploit,” said Mr. Russel, who served as former President Barack Obama’s top Asia adviser.

Challenges come with opportunities

However, according to experts, Mr Trump's " America First" stance and transactional approach could also benefit Beijing.

“ Although Beijing is very concerned about the unpredictability of Mr. Trump’s China policy, it reminds itself that challenges can also bring opportunities,” said Mr. Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“ Despite concerns about a new trade war, Beijing believes that Mr. Trump’s tough tariff policies will not be popular in Europe, creating an opportunity for China to strengthen economic ties with the continent and counter US efforts to deepen technological and supply chain decoupling between China and Western countries,” he said.

Mr Trump's lukewarm attitude towards NATO, as well as international alliances and institutions in general, also threatens to weaken the US alliances that President Joe Biden has worked hard to build to counter what Washington sees as the threat from a rising China.

That would provide timely relief to Beijing, which has grown increasingly uncomfortable with what it sees as Washington’s strategy of encircling and containing China with an “Asian NATO.”

Kieu Anh (VOV.VN)

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/nhiem-ky-thu-hai-cua-ong-trump-co-y-nghia-gi-voi-trung-quoc-ar906526.html