Liverpool vs Everton Prediction, 02:00 April 3: Finding Joy Again

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Prediction before the match Liverpool vs Everton

James Tarkowski's stoppage-time volley brought a dramatic end to the last Merseyside derby at Goodison Park in February. Everton snatched a late 2-2 draw to take two points from title rivals Liverpool, and arguably they were the better team for much of that game, having more shots (10-6) and limiting the visitors to just 0.62 expected goals – the lowest xG total the Reds have had in any league game this season.

However, the Toffees were almost beaten by a moment of magic from Mohamed Salah, before Tarkowski equalised in the 98th minute. Recorded at 97:07, it was the second-late goal Liverpool have conceded in the Premier League since Opta began recording such data in the 2006-07 season, after Robin van Persie's strike for Arsenal in April 2011 (97:10).

The lengthy VAR check did little to ease the heat at Goodison Park, where things became tense late on. Curtis Jones and Abdoulaye Doucouré were sent off after a clash when Jones reacted to Doucouré's provocation of Liverpool fans, while Reds manager Arne Slot and assistant Sipke Hulshoff were also sent off after confronting referee Michael Oliver.

When counting players alone, the Merseyside derby has produced more red cards than any other game in Premier League history (25), with Everton's 17 dismissals against the Reds also the highest number by a team against another opponent in the competition.

Arne Slot admitted he should not have lost his cool at Goodison despite feeling decisions had largely gone against his team, and the Dutchman will be hoping to get revenge on the pitch when Liverpool welcome their neighbours to Anfield, where they have only lost to Everton once in the 21st century.

That is easier said than done, however, as David Moyes' side are unbeaten in nine league games, Everton's longest run since the 2016-17 season under Ronald Koeman.

The last time Everton had a longer unbeaten run was in December 2013 (10 games). Indeed, this is their longest unbeaten run ahead of a league meeting with Liverpool since February 2010 (also nine games), when they lost 1-0 at Anfield, with Moyes also in charge on that occasion.

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Liverpool still depends on Salah

Liverpool will be looking to bounce back after being knocked out of the UEFA Champions League on penalties by Paris Saint-Germain and losing easily to Newcastle United in the EFL Cup final before the international break.

However, the Reds are a commanding 12-point leader at the top of the table ahead of Arsenal ahead of Matchday 30, and having played just one Premier League game since the end of February, they will be ready and eager to get going with the Anfield crowd backing them.

Moyes is winless in 19 Premier League away games against Liverpool, the most by a manager in the competition to face an opponent away from home without a win (Moyes also has 19 against Chelsea). In his first spell at Everton, he drew six of his 11 games at Anfield (losing five), including his last in May 2013 (0-0).

Everton have been able to welcome back a number of players from injury in recent weeks, although it remains unclear whether this game will come too soon for Iliman Ndiaye, who was injured in the first leg, and Dwight McNeil, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains absent.

They have shown plenty of resilience in recent matches, with Jake O'Brien scoring late equalisers against Brentford and West Ham, although Everton have won just one of their last six games (drawing five).

Everton have scored 41% of their Premier League goals this season from non-penalty set-pieces (13/32), the highest ratio in the division. Indeed, Beto's opener in the first leg at Goodison Park came from a quick free-kick.

In contrast, Liverpool have the lowest goal ratio in the league this season from non-penalty set-pieces, at just 6% (4/69).

Liverpool, however, do not need to rely on set-pieces with the attacking talent they have. The most dangerous of all, of course, is Salah. He has been directly involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League Merseyside derbies (six goals, two assists), scoring and assisting at Goodison Park. The only players to score and assist in both Premier League games against Everton in a single season are Chris Sutton in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95.

Only Steven Gerrard (nine) has scored more Premier League goals in Merseyside derbies than Salah (eight). With uncertainty over a new contract at Anfield, this could be the Egyptian's last appearance in the famous fixture, so he will be determined to surpass Gerrard's record.

The hosts have seen Alisson and Ryan Gravenberch return to their clubs early from the international break due to injury, although both are expected to be available for this game. Conor Bradley has returned to training but the game may come too soon for him, so Jarell Quansah could continue at right-back with Trent Alexander-Arnold out injured.

Head to head history, form Liverpool vs Everton

Liverpool have won their last three Premier League home games against Everton, each by a score of 2-0. The last time they won consecutive home Merseyside derbies was between 1990 and 1994 (five).

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