The risk of Ukraine's defensive lines collapsing.

A former British army commander has stated that Ukraine faces a "serious risk" of its defenses collapsing and suffering defeat in the face of Russia's multi-directional advances.

Ukraine has not yet reached that point, but its army is severely depleted of ammunition, soldiers, and air defense systems. Last year's large-scale counteroffensive by Ukraine failed to push Russian forces out of the areas they controlled.

The Russian army is preparing for an offensive this summer. Barrons noted that the nature of this operation is quite clear. "We are seeing Russian forces overwhelming the front lines, taking advantage of a 5-to-1 ratio in artillery, ammunition, and manpower, while also increasing the use of new weapons," he said.

Ukrainian soldiers in the area near Bakhmut on March 6. Photo: Reuters

Among Russia's new weapons are FAB glide bombs of various sizes, which are conventional bombs from the Soviet era equipped with guidance fins and a navigation system. FAB bombs, weighing from 250 kg to 1.5 tons, are devastating Ukraine's defenses.

"Sometime this summer, we will see a large-scale Russian offensive aimed at achieving more objectives than small advances to break through Ukrainian lines," Barrons predicted. "Russian forces could break through and overrun areas where Ukraine is unable to stop them."

Last year, Russia knew exactly where Ukraine was likely to launch a counterattack, including the area from Zaporizhzhia south to the Azov Sea coast. They planned their defenses accordingly and successfully halted Ukraine's advance. The situation now is completely different, as Ukraine cannot predict where Russia will attack next.

"One of the challenges Ukraine faces is that Russia can choose where to deploy its forces," said Jack Watling, a ground operations expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). "The front line is very long, and Ukraine has to defend the entire front."

However, due to a shortage of troops, Ukraine cannot deploy its forces across the entire front line. Watling predicts that Ukraine will lose more territory in the next Russian offensive. "The question is how much and which cities will be affected," he said.

The Russian General Staff may not yet have determined the main direction of advance. Experts say that Kharkiv, a province in northeastern Ukraine, is certainly a key target for Russia.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict situation. Graphic: WP

Russia has recently been attacking Kharkiv on a daily basis. Ukrainian air defenses in Kharkiv are not capable of stopping the coordinated attack tactics involving drones (UAVs), cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles targeting the area.

"In my opinion, this year's Russian offensive will target areas outside of Donbass. They will be eyeing the major target of Kharkiv, the capital of the province of the same name, located about 29 km from the border," Barrons predicted.

Ukraine could still survive if Kharkiv falls, but it would be a devastating blow to the country's morale and economy , British experts warn.

Fighting in the Donbass region, which includes the Donetsk and Lugansk provinces, has been ongoing since 2014 when pro-Russian separatists seized power there. In October 2022, Russia annexed Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson into its territory.

The Donbas region has been the site of most of the ground fighting over the past 18 months. Most controversially, Ukraine has concentrated significant resources on defending Bakhmut and Avdeevka, two cities they subsequently lost to Russia. The fall of these two cities resulted in Ukraine losing a considerable number of its best combat-ready soldiers.

Ukraine claims that the defensive operations in Bakhmut and Avdeevka have inflicted heavy casualties on Russian forces. However, Russia has more troops to continue the operation, while Ukraine does not.

General Christopher Cavali, head of the U.S. Army's European Command, warned on April 10 that unless the U.S. supplies more weapons and ammunition, Ukraine will be outmatched by Russia in firepower up to 10 times greater on the battlefield.

Ukrainian soldiers on a road near the city of Chasov Yar on March 25. Photo: AFP

According to British experts, while the Russian army may be inferior to Ukraine in terms of tactics, leadership, and equipment, they have a numerical advantage and, especially, artillery. This advantage is so significant that, if Russia had no other objectives, their default choice would be to continue pushing Ukraine westward and controlling each village one by one.

The city of Zaporizhzhia is another major Russian target, home to 700,000 people before the conflict and situated near the front lines. Zaporizhzhia is the capital of the eponymous province that Russia annexed, but Ukraine still controls the city.

The formidable defensive system that Russia had built south of the city of Zaporizhzhia could further complicate their advance in this direction, British experts believe. Russia could dismantle part of the defensive line, but this could expose their preparations.

However, Russia's strategic goal this year may not be to gain more territory, but simply to break Ukraine's fighting spirit and convince the West that it is certain to lose the war.

"Russia's goal is to try to create a sense of despair," Watling said. "This Russian offensive will not completely end the conflict, regardless of the situation on both sides."

General Barrons also expressed skepticism about Russia's ability to take advantage of the dire situation in Ukraine to deliver a decisive blow.

"The most likely outcome is that Russia will gain many advantages but not achieve a breakthrough," Barrons said. "They don't have a large enough or well-equipped force to reach the banks of the Dnieper River, but the course of the conflict will favor Russia."

Nguyen Tien (Based on BBC, AFP, Reuters )

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