Study: There Are More People on Earth Than We Think

The grid method works by dividing the world into squares and estimating the number of people in each square based on census data. However, researchers from Aalto University in Finland say the method is primarily tailored to urban areas, leaving out rural populations.

According to recent statistics, rural areas account for 43% of the world's population, which is estimated to be over 8 billion people. If the results of this study are accurate, the number of uncounted people could be in the billions.

Illustration: GI

“For the first time, our study provides evidence that a significant proportion of the rural population may not be fully reflected in global population datasets,” said environmental engineer Josias Láng-Ritter from Aalto University.

He also stressed that the actual population in rural areas is significantly higher than the reported figures. Depending on the dataset, the rural population was underestimated by 53% to 84% during the study period.

The study analyzed data from 1975 to 2010, focusing on the impact of dam projects on population displacement. Looking at 307 dam projects in 35 countries, the scientists compared official numbers of displaced people with figures from five different population datasets.

The results show a large discrepancy between population estimates and actual displacement. This is largely due to limited detailed information on rural areas, including census, health and infrastructure data.

However, not all scientists agree with this conclusion. Some experts say advances in satellite imaging technology and improved data collection in many countries could reduce this bias.

But the study raises an important issue. Even with a smaller margin of error, we could still be missing hundreds of millions of people. This could have major implications for public service delivery and climate change impact assessments.

The team calls for increased investment in population monitoring in rural areas to ensure everyone is counted.

“To ensure rural communities have equitable access to services and resources, there needs to be a deep discussion about how to use population maps in the past and in the future,” Lang-Ritter concludes.

Ha Trang (according to Nature Communications, Science Alert)