M142 HIMARS system fires towards Bakhmut, Ukraine (Photo: Getty).
“Western artillery supplies to Ukraine in the future are unlikely to surpass those of Russia,” said Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot, fellows at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Rob Lee, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Ukrainian forces are facing severe ammunition shortages and are outgunned by Russian forces. This marks a sharp reversal from the summer when Kiev used artillery shells to attack Russian positions. The situation is being fueled by Russia’s increased production of artillery shells and its purchase of foreign weapons.
Ukraine is currently estimated to fire just 2,000 shells a day, while Russia fires around 10,000 shells a day. Experts say Moscow’s rate of fire will remain at or above current levels this year.
According to experts Kofman, Massicot and Lee, "since Ukraine was unable to overcome Russian defenses last summer with its advantage in artillery numbers, the prospects for future attacks will worsen unless Ukraine and its backers can compensate by enhancing other advantages."
“This means that the number of artillery shells will have to be supplemented with drones and other precision strike equipment in the future,” the experts added.
It is worth noting that Ukraine is no longer relying on the US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) or Excalibur artillery shells to degrade Russian firepower, experts say.
HIMARS has been in the spotlight since it first appeared on the battlefield in 2022, when Kiev used them to attack Russian positions, while preventing Moscow from deploying large quantities of ammunition close to the front line and maintaining a high rate of fire.
But by 2023, Russia had adapted to this problem and moved high-value assets — such as ammunition depots and logistics facilities — out of range of HIMARS, reducing the weapon's effectiveness.
Experts say that with these adjustments, the West and Ukraine need to find new ways to reduce the rate of fire of Russian forces, with one potential solution being more precision-guided munitions with longer ranges.
"Planning needs to be based not only on experience from 2023 but also on the ability to adapt and innovate technology on the battlefield," experts said.
Ukraine received some effective precision-guided munitions from NATO members in 2023 and used them to attack Russian targets. Ukrainian forces used Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles supplied by the UK and France to attack Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and switched to the US-supplied MGM-140 Tactical Missile System or ATACMS to deal a heavy blow to Russia’s helicopter fleet.
Ukraine has only a limited number of these weapons. Although France recently pledged to provide additional SCALP missiles to Ukraine, there has been no confirmation of new ATACMS strikes, nor has there been any information about the delivery of these weapons since last fall.
As the future of US military aid to Ukraine remains uncertain, Western officials continue to signal that halting military aid could have dire consequences in the near future.
"If we want a lasting and just peace, we must provide Ukraine with more weapons and ammunition. Providing weapons to Ukraine is the path to peace," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a recent joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
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