If Harris beats Trump, here's what it will mean

On November 4, the New York Times published an article explaining the factors that contribute to the success of US presidential candidate Kamala Harris if victory is called her name in the coming days. TG&VN translated the analysis.

Kamala Harris at a campaign rally in Houston. (Source: The New York Times)

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At this point, we still don’t know the outcome of this year’s US election, but we do know Kamala Harris’ strategy. Here are the factors analysts have put forward to explain if she wins this election.

The 2024 presidential election is a challenging one for Vice President Kamala Harris. She is a late starter and running against a strong opponent in a relatively bleak political climate in the United States. She faces an electorate hungry for change, sometimes expressing anger at the direction of the country and the economy.

If Ms. Harris wins, she will likely have to look back at her race, where there are several factors that helped her withstand those “headwinds” and defeat former President Donald Trump.

Voter turnout - the difference maker

The vice president's support for the traditional Democratic get-out-the-vote effort, which relies on paid staff and unions to knock on doors, will prove effective.

Mr. Trump, meanwhile, has largely left the job to allies, including billionaire Elon Musk, who have much less experience organizing and reaching out to voters.

Ms Harris' campaign has mobilized 2,500 staff, working in 353 offices nationwide, to find supporters and push them to vote.

In just one week, the campaign recorded 600,000 door knocks and 3 million phone calls.

If anything, Ms. Harris’s victory would prove what often seems like a theory: Turnout operations make a difference in close races.

Abortion rights

Abortion has long been a deeply contentious issue in American politics, but the conflict came to a head when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, ending nearly 50 years of constitutionally protected abortion rights.

Ms. Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, has repeatedly emphasized the importance of abortion rights during her campaign, pledging to protect and expand reproductive freedom.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump, who once enthusiastically supported the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion rights, has repeatedly changed his position in recent times, disappointing conservatives and anti-abortion groups, especially when he said in early October that he would veto a nationwide abortion ban if he became president and support giving the decision to individual states.

If Harris wins, her stance on the issue will undoubtedly be a deciding factor. Trump’s efforts, such as saying he would not sign a nationwide abortion ban, appear to have failed and only complicated matters.

Kamala Harris supporters in Madison. (Source: The New York Times)

Thank you Mr. Trump

If Ms. Harris wins, it will likely be because Mr. Trump turned off many voters, especially in the final days of the campaign, with disjointed, rambling speeches filled with dark innuendo and often menacing tones.

Two weeks before Election Day, Ms. Harris delivered a speech from the Vice President's residence at the Naval Observatory, calling Mr. Trump "unstable," continuing to attack him to facilitate the final stretch of the campaign.

Mr Trump's subsequent actions appeared to lend Ms Harris a hand, from spending about 30 minutes swaying on stage to the music to suggesting that Liz Cheney, a former Republican congresswoman, be sent to war "with nine barrels of guns shooting at her".

Gender gap

Ms. Harris has spent the past four years in the White House, and Mr. Trump has worked hard to link her to President Biden’s legacy. If she wins, she will have succeeded, despite some failed attempts to present herself as a candidate of change, in an election where change is the order of the day.

Luckily, she is 18 years younger than Mr. Trump and is a woman.

Unlike Hillary Clinton in 2016, Harris has not highlighted the historic nature of her candidacy — that she would be the first woman, not to mention the first woman of color and the first Asian-American woman, to hold the office of President.

Obviously, there is no need to do so.

Harris’s victory will be fueled by support from women. The final New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted in late October, found a stark gender split: Harris led Trump among women, 54% to 42%, while Trump led Harris among men, 55% to 41%.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/du-doan-ket-qua-bau-cu-my-neu-ba-harris-danh-bai-ong-trump-day-se-la-loi-giai-dap-292630.html