In 2024, import and export of goods could reach a record of 800 billion USD

Import and export have gone through 3/4 of the year with a picture of many fresh colors. It is forecasted that import and export will reach a record of 800 billion USD this year.

Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh - Economic expert had an interview with reporters. Industry and Trade Newspaper around this issue.

Sir, although we have only passed 3/4 of the year, the import-export picture is considered to have many fresh colors. How do you comment on this result?

The General Statistics Office has just released a report showing that the turnover export goods September 2024 preliminary export turnover reached 34.05 billion USD, down 9.9% compared to the previous month and up 10.7% compared to the same period last year. In the first 9 months of 2024, preliminary export turnover of goods reached 299.63 billion USD, up 15.4% over the same period last year. Of which, the domestic economic sector reached 83.47 billion USD, up 20.7%, accounting for 27.9% of total export turnover; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached 216.16 billion USD, up 13.4%, accounting for 72.1%.

Customs clearance of exported goods at the Port. (Photo: Duc Duy/Vietnam+)

In the opposite direction, turnover import goods September 2024 preliminary reached 31.76 billion USD, down 5.9% compared to the previous month and increased by 11.1% over the same period last year. In the first 9 months of 2024, the preliminary import turnover of goods reached 278.84 billion USD, up 17.3% over the same period last year, of which the domestic economic sector reached 100.85 billion USD, up 18.8%; the foreign-invested sector reached 177.99 billion USD, up 16.5%.

About the market import export In the first 9 months of 2024, the United States was Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of 89.5 billion USD. China was Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of 105 billion USD. The preliminary trade balance of goods in September had a trade surplus of 2.29 billion USD. In the first 9 months of 2024, the preliminary trade balance of goods had a trade surplus of 20.79 billion USD.

It can be seen that in 2024, businesses will prepare orders for import and export activities as well as production and business better. The picture of import and export of goods in the first 9 months of 2024 shows that the following month is higher than the previous month and the following quarter is higher than the previous quarter. The average growth rate in exports in the first 9 months of 2024 is about 15.5%; import growth is about 17%.

Thus, Vietnam's import-export activities are showing a positive trend. If the current growth rate or higher is maintained in the fourth quarter of 2024, we will definitely reach a new milestone in import-export turnover. This will contribute to promoting economic growth in 2024 at a higher level.

Although there are still problems in operation import and export of goods or market adaptation, but clearly, on the side of businesses are trying their best to meet the requirements of importers. On the side of the Ministry of Industry and Trade as well as the authorities, there has been close monitoring with trade offices and embassies in supporting businesses to learn about the market, grasp changes and meet import and export requirements in the best way. Obviously, this is a bright spot in the import and export picture for 9 months as well as in 2024.

You just made a statement that we will absolutely have a new milestone in import-export turnover in 2024. What is the specific number and what is the reason for you to give this number?

In my opinion, with the current order situation and looking at the acceleration of input material imports, if businesses make efforts from now until the end of the year, in 2024, Vietnam is likely to reach the 800 billion USD import-export mark, far exceeding the record import-export of 732 billion USD in 2022.

The reason I can give this figure is based on the fact that Vietnam's import and export activities have achieved many positive results, including in major markets such as The United States, EU, Japan, and South Korea all have high growth.

Besides, at this time, the business community is determined to boost export growth in the last quarter of the year, taking full advantage of the market, especially the Free Trade Agreement new generation (FTAs).

On the other hand, the demand of import markets at the end of the year with many big festivals is still increasing and this is beneficial for export growth in the remaining quarter, especially for the garment, footwear, electronics and agriculture, forestry and fishery industries...

The openness of Vietnam's economy also increased rapidly from 120% to nearly 200% of GDP in more than 10 years, making the Vietnamese economy vulnerable and very sensitive to external fluctuations. For sustainable export businesses, especially for small and medium enterprises, what is the solution, sir?

To export To be sustainable, businesses themselves must be stable and develop sustainably. Therefore, the quality of their products must be guaranteed. Each business must focus on pioneering and exemplary, thereby ensuring that branded goods penetrate deeply into the export market.

Only then will we get orders and be able to grow and develop exports sustainably. On that basis, we will continue the process of expanding relations with the countries with which we have signed agreements. FTA, thereby maximizing the benefits brought by FTA.

In the long run, attracting consumers and dominating the domestic market with 100 million people is also a problem that Vietnamese enterprises must consider, because currently the Vietnamese market has a large demand for high-quality Vietnamese products.

In the new context, import and export activities require ensuring harmony between growth goals, economic development, social stability and environmental improvement. What is your comment on this opinion?

To sustainable development We must have a better economic environment. Therefore, although we aim for faster and higher growth and consider it as an indicator to promote production and business as well as the capacity in the economy to develop in the best way, it is clear that sustainable development is also an issue that we need to pay attention to.

Therefore, maintaining macroeconomic indicators, from our efforts to maintain inflationary below the level set by the National Assembly, as well as how to ensure balance between fiscal and monetary policies, ensuring the value of VND with other foreign currencies, especially with USD, is one of the requirements.

This is also the basis for businesses and policy makers to develop the socio-economy in 2025 and the following years in a better way. Therefore, maintaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring major balances in the economy is very important.

Thank you!

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