In 2024, Vietnam's economy will grow 6.5%

Vietnam’s GDP growth is likely to slow to below 5% in 2023, due to a decline in demand for “Made in Vietnam” goods. However, Vietnam’s GDP growth will increase to 6.5% in 2024, thanks to a recovery in exports and manufacturing output.

Vietnam's GDP growth will recover to 6.5% in 2024 thanks to a recovery in exports. (Source: mof.gov.vn)

This is the notable content in the report on Vietnam's economic highlights by Mr. Michael Kokalari, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research at VinaCapital.

VinaCapital's analysis identifies the long-term drivers of Vietnam's economic growth in the medium term and the short-term economic developments that will influence stock prices. Changes in GDP growth rates are often among the most important short-term economic developments for the stock market, as GDP growth drives corporate earnings growth.

VinaCapital forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP growth will slow from 8% in 2022 to 4.7% in 2023. This is because exports and production will decline this year due to reduced demand for “Made in Vietnam” products. In the first nine months of 2023, Vietnam’s exports decreased by nearly 10% compared to the same period last year, mainly due to a nearly 20% decrease in exports to the US - Vietnam’s largest export market.

Vietnam’s largest investment management firm expects Vietnam’s GDP growth to rebound to 6.5% in 2024, driven by a recovery in exports. This will be accompanied by a recovery in Vietnam’s manufacturing output from zero growth in 2023 to 8-9% growth in 2024, compared to the long-term average growth of 12% in the sector before Covid-19.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/nam-2024-kinh-te-viet-nam-se-tang-truong-65-247521.html