Want to know the next US president, look at the stock market?

(Dan Tri) - The S&P 500 stock index in the 3 months before the election can predict more than 80% of the person who will become the next president of the United States.

Since 1928, the S&P 500 index, which tracks the performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the United States, has correctly predicted the winner of 20 of the 24 US presidential elections, according to analysis by financial services firm LPL Financial.

LPL Financial's analysis shows that whenever the S&P 500 shows positive growth in the three months before the election, there is a high probability that the party controlling the White House will continue to win the election.

Specifically, in the 3 months before the 2008 election, the S&P 500 fell 24.8%. As a result, the Democratic Party won the election and candidate Barack Obama became the new US president, ending the Republican Party's control of the White House after 8 years.

Conversely, when the stock market moves negatively in the three months before an election, it is a "signal" that the party in the White House is going to leave.

For example, the S&P 500 fell 2.3% before the 2016 presidential election, when Republican candidate Donald Trump became the next president of the United States, ending eight years of Democratic control of the White House.

Mr. Donald Trump and Ms. Kamala Harris (Photo: BI).

Americans are now less than two weeks away from voting in the presidential election, and the S&P 500 has risen 12% since early August. Assuming US stocks don’t fall sharply in the final days, the historical trend is in favor of incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris.

In addition, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has also maintained its upward trend since the beginning of the year until the end of October. Experts believe that this is a positive signal for the current administration.

However, many investors are also placing high hopes on Donald Trump's victory because they believe his plans such as reducing corporate taxes will benefit the market.

Therefore, many investors in the market are placing their trust in areas considered positive for Mr. Trump such as the banking sector, digital currencies or shares of electric car company Tesla, which is being run by Mr. Trump's ally, billionaire Elon Musk.

However, LPL Financial experts still warn that the market is always unpredictable and can also produce opposite results.

In the 2020 US presidential election, although the S&P 500 index increased by 2.3% before the election, the representative of the party controlling the White House at that time, Mr. Donald Trump, lost the presidential seat to Mr. Joe Biden of the Democratic Party.

In fact, recent polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a tight race, leading many observers to believe the outcome will be very close.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/muon-biet-tong-thong-tiep-theo-cua-my-hay-nhin-thi-truong-chung-khoan-20241028163454349.htm