The World Bank has just raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth to 6.1% for 2024 and expects this figure to continue to increase to 6.5% in 2025...
In recent years, Vietnam’s economy has emerged as a bright spot in the Southeast Asian region thanks to its impressive growth rate. With the advantage of abundant, youthful human resources and competitive labor costs, Vietnam is increasingly asserting its position.
Recently, the Vietnamese National Assembly passed the Resolution on socio-economic development in 2025, which sets a GDP growth target of 6.5-7% and controls inflation at 4.5%.
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| GDP growth target through the lens of international experts (Photo: Tapchitaichinh.vn) |
This is quite an impressive growth rate, surpassing the previous plan and close to the target of over 7% that the Government strives for this year, showing the Government's determination to promote economic recovery and development. Setting a high growth target also means significant challenges, especially in the context of a volatile global economy.
To achieve the set growth target, the National Assembly requested the Government to focus on solutions such as supporting businesses, controlling inflation and ensuring balance of major factors of the economy. At the same time, fiscal and monetary policies need to be flexibly adjusted to adapt to the actual situation.
In fact, thanks to positive economic results in the third quarter of 2024, Vietnam's GDP growth prospects in 2024 and 2025 are highly appreciated by international organizations.
Specifically, the World Bank (WB) has raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast to 6.1% for 2024 and is expected to continue to increase to 6.5% in 2025. With this growth rate, Vietnam will surpass many major economies in the ASEAN region, including China.
In its latest economic update on Vietnam in October, Standard Chartered Bank also revised up its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth to 6.8% for 2024 and 6.7% for 2025 compared to the expected growth of 7.5% in the first half of the year and 6.1% in the second half of the year compared to the same period last year.
According to experts from this bank, the strong recovery of key economic sectors such as import and export, retail, tourism and construction are the main drivers of Vietnam's economic growth in the coming time. The recovery of trade and increased business activities along with foreign direct investment will be the main growth drivers in 2025 and beyond.
Meanwhile, Associate Professor Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh also gave optimistic comments on the possibility of achieving Vietnam's GDP growth target in 2025. The expert even said that the target set by the National Assembly is quite cautious and can be completely overcome. According to Mr. Thinh, if there are no unexpected fluctuations from external factors such as natural disasters, wars, or sudden changes in interest rates, the Vietnamese economy has the potential to achieve a growth rate higher than the set target.
Specifically, this expert has proposed two growth scenarios for 2025. In the conservative scenario, Vietnam's GDP could reach 6.8-7.3% with inflation controlled at a low level. In the more positive scenario, GDP could reach 7.3-7.8%. To realize these scenarios, Mr. Thinh emphasized the importance of maintaining policies to support businesses, attract foreign investment and improve infrastructure.
Mr. Thinh also noted that external factors, especially the policy decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), will have a significant impact on the Vietnamese economy. Changes in the Fed's interest rates can affect investment flows, exchange rates and therefore the growth rate of the economy.
Mr. Tran Hoai Nam, Deputy General Director of HDBank, even gave a higher forecast than Standard Chartered Bank, saying that Vietnam's GDP in 2025 could reach 7%. Mr. Nam believes that the Government's new policies and strong determination will be important drivers of economic growth.
" In my opinion, international institutions are always cautious. In recent years, international organizations have given their views on GDP, but Vietnam has always achieved higher than that level. With very new policy changes and the determination of the Vietnamese Government, I believe that GDP growth must reach 6.7% or more. The number I think must be 7% in 2025," said Mr. Nam.
However, experts also warn of the risks that Vietnam needs to face. The global economic landscape in 2025 could be volatile, especially with changes in international trade policies and geopolitical instability.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also warned of risks to Vietnam's economy in the coming time. According to the IMF, exports - the main driving force of Vietnam's economy - could be negatively affected if global growth slows down, geopolitical tensions increase or trade disputes continue. In addition, prolonged exchange rate pressure could increase domestic inflation, while existing problems in the real estate market and corporate bond market could limit banks' lending capacity, thereby affecting economic growth.
To address these risks, the IMF recommends that Vietnam continue to implement extensive reforms to enhance the resilience of the economy. Specifically, the IMF emphasizes the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability, addressing economic vulnerabilities, and promoting green, sustainable growth. In the current context, with more fiscal space than monetary policy, the IMF believes that fiscal policy should play a leading role in supporting economic activity when necessary.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/muc-tieu-tang-truong-gdp-qua-lang-kinh-chuyen-gia-quoc-te-359167.html
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