According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, Director of the Department of National Accounts (General Statistics Office), if GDP in the fourth quarter increases by 7.5%, the whole year will reach 7%. This target is feasible, based on the economic development situation and results achieved in the third quarter as well as the first 9 months of the year.
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| Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, Director of the Department of National Accounts System (General Statistics Office) |
The damage caused by Typhoon Yagi has been preliminarily estimated at over VND80,000 billion, but that is only the initial damage. Will the consequences of Typhoon Yagi last long, madam?
Typhoon Yagi and its circulation have caused severe damage to people and property in many localities. According to preliminary estimates, the initial damage caused by Typhoon Yagi is over 80,000 billion VND.
The post-storm damage can be mentioned as the state budget must increase spending to overcome the consequences of the storm, causing other spending to be reduced; increased costs of social services such as health care, health care; increased social insurance costs; increased costs of relocation and resettlement for households that lost their homes; reduced income of people, affecting consumer demand; public health is affected by environmental pollution, diseases arising after the storm; the landscape environment is destroyed, requiring a long time to repair...
In addition, post-storm damage will reduce the productive capacity of the economy due to damaged assets, which will take a long time to accumulate and compensate, causing economic growth to slow down for a while, especially for industries directly affected by storms (agriculture, forestry and fisheries, tourism) and indirectly affected. Investment in production may be reduced to compensate for the cost of post-storm reconstruction.
Specifically, how does Typhoon Yagi affect the growth of localities, sectors and the entire economy?
Typhoon Yagi directly and indirectly affected 26 provinces in the North and the Northern Midlands and Mountains. In addition to human losses, the consequences of the storm caused a decline in the growth of the agricultural, forestry and fishery sectors in some localities in the third quarter. Some provinces directly affected by Typhoon Yagi had lower GRDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year, such as Quang Ninh increasing by only 5.75%, Hai Phong increasing by 7.68%, Thai Binh increasing by 6.81%.
Growth in the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector of the whole country in the third quarter of 2024 reached 2.58%, lower than the 4.3% growth rate of the third quarter of 2023 and lower than the growth scenario by 0.66 - 0.97 percentage points.
It is estimated that GDP growth in the third quarter reached 7.4%, in which industry - construction and services continued to grow well with increases of 9.11% and 7.51% respectively. The processing and manufacturing industry grew impressively, reaching 11.41%, contributing 2.93 percentage points to the overall growth. The impressive growth of these two sectors has compensated for the losses suffered by the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors.
Although the northern provinces were severely affected by Typhoon Yagi, international organizations have maintained or only slightly reduced their forecasts for Vietnam's economic growth this year. What is your view?
When making an optimistic forecast for Vietnam's economy in 2024 and 2025, international organizations have had preliminary data on the damage caused by Typhoon Yagi and the consequences that need to be overcome. Damage to agriculture, economic and social infrastructure, and means of production of people and businesses has been counted, of which Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Cao Bang, Lao Cai, Thai Nguyen, Bac Giang, and Son La suffered the most damage. For the remaining provinces, the level of damage is generally not too severe.
Because the proportion of added value of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector of the 26 provinces and cities damaged by storm Yagi only accounts for more than 20% of the country, it does not greatly affect the growth of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector nationwide.
Industrial activities in 26 provinces and cities were also affected, but the damage was not significant, as most businesses had proactive plans to respond to storms and floods. In provinces with strong industrial development such as Hanoi, Hai Phong, Quang Ninh, Vinh Phuc, Thai Nguyen, and Bac Ninh, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) still increased quite well.
Many market service industries such as transportation, warehousing, accommodation, food and beverage, and tourism had to temporarily suspend operations due to flooding, and restaurants and resorts were damaged, while other service industries remained stable. September is not the peak tourist season, so the service sector was not too negatively affected by the storm.
Production and business activities are moving towards the 2024 target with a GDP growth target of about 7% for the whole year. What is the economic growth scenario of the General Statistics Office this year, Madam?
As I analyzed above, typhoon Yagi affected many provinces and cities in the North, affecting the growth results of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors, but the impressive results of the industrial sector compensated for the decline in the agricultural sector, the service sector maintained a stable growth rate, so basically it did not affect much the overall growth results of the entire economy.
Based on the economic results of the third quarter and the first nine months of 2024, the General Statistics Office assessed that the possibility of achieving the economic growth target of 6.5 - 7.0% for the whole year of 2024 is feasible. At the online Government meeting with 63 localities, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh affirmed his determination to achieve the growth target of 7% this year, of which the fourth quarter strives for growth of 7.5 - 8%. To achieve this growth rate, the Prime Minister pointed out 12 groups of key tasks and solutions and 5 groups of important and urgent tasks and solutions, requiring ministries, branches and localities to immediately start implementing them.
According to the General Statistics Office's calculations, to achieve the annual growth target of 6.5%, the fourth quarter only needs to increase by 5.7%; to achieve annual growth of 6.8%, the fourth quarter needs to increase by 6.76% and to achieve annual growth of 7%, the fourth quarter needs to increase by 7.5%. With the growth results of the third quarter and the first 9 months, along with the assessment of the growth trend in the last months of the year, economic growth in 2024 is likely to achieve the target of 7%.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/muc-tieu-tang-truong-7-nam-2024-la-kha-thi-d227311.html
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