An asteroid is likely to collide with Earth in 2032

(CLO) NASA discovered that asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.2% risk of colliding with Earth in 2032.

The newly discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4, has attracted the attention of NASA and the global scientific community because it has a 1.2% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. Although the probability of collision is low, it is still worrisome enough for astronomers to closely monitor its orbit.

At about 55 meters in diameter, 2024 YR4 isn’t big enough to cause a global catastrophe, but if it were to hit a populated area, it could cause serious devastation. Estimates suggest the energy released from the impact could be as high as 8 megatons—about 500 times the explosive power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The discovery underscores both the threat posed by near-Earth objects (NEOs) and the importance of planetary defenses.

Illustration of an asteroid. (Photo: ESA)

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected by NASA's Asteroid Earth Impact Final Alert System (ATLAS) on December 27, 2024. ATLAS is an early warning system designed to detect potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), playing a key role in monitoring small- and medium-sized objects that could pose a threat to Earth.

Although not a large asteroid, 2024 YR4 is still capable of causing serious damage if it hits land or creating a powerful tsunami if it hits the ocean.

Currently, 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth, meaning it poses no immediate danger. However, NASA warns that its orbit will bring it close to Earth several times over the next 50 years. Orbital calculations show it will make another close approach in 2028, and make six more close approaches between 2032 and 2074. The most worrying is on December 22, 2032, when the probability of impact is estimated at 1 in 83 — a significantly higher risk than most other asteroids of its size.

NASA Torino Scale Warning

NASA uses the Torino Impact Hazard Scale to rate the risk of space objects, on a scale of 0 to 10 based on the probability of impact and the potential damage. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently classified as a Category 3, meaning it has a high enough probability of impact that it requires close observation and study. Asteroids at this level pose a significant risk of impacting Earth and need to be monitored closely to refine their orbits.

Typically, Category 3 asteroids are downgraded over time as more observational data becomes available, which helps to better determine their orbits and often reduces their risk of impact. However, until more information is available, scientists still consider 2024 YR4 to be a real potential threat. Raising public awareness and continuing to monitor its trajectory are important to determine whether it will come closer to Earth in the future.

To put that into perspective, 2024 YR4 is significantly larger than the 20-meter-long Chelyabinsk meteorite that exploded over Russia in 2013. That event injured more than 1,500 people and shattered thousands of windows across a wide area, though the meteorite did not touch the ground and simply disintegrated in the atmosphere. If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, the effects could be much more severe, with enough damage to flatten a major metropolitan area, depending on where it hits.

Can we stop it?

Space agencies around the world are developing planetary defense strategies to mitigate the threat from asteroids. One effective method is kinetic impact redirection, which NASA successfully tested with its 2022 DART mission, when the spacecraft crashed into the asteroid Dimorphos and changed its trajectory.

However, the likelihood of diverting 2024 YR4 depends on the warning time, its composition, and current technology. As a single object, it may require a different approach to change its orbit. If the risk of collision increases, NASA and others will have to find a solution before it is too late.

The discovery of 2024 YR4 highlights that Earth still faces risks from space. While the probability of a devastating impact is low, smaller asteroids can still cause serious damage. Early warning systems like those of NASA and ESA are improving to detect threats years in advance, giving humanity time to prepare and prevent potential hazards. For now, astronomers will continue to monitor 2024 YR4 to ensure the world has a timely response plan.

Ha Trang (according to Indian Defense Review)

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/mot-tieu-hanh-tinh-co-kha-nang-se-va-cham-voi-trai-dat-vao-nam-2032-post332546.html