According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the 2024 rainy season will come late, with total rainfall in the Central Highlands and the South in May 2024 about 20% lower than the average of many years.
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Saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta will increase in intensity and frequency of occurrence. |
Low water flow from upstream, saltwater intrusion continues
The Mekong River Commission and international organizations forecast that rainfall in May 2024 in the Mekong River basin will be 20-30% lower than the average of many years. Lakes on the Lancang River are holding about 40% of their total useful capacity, while lakes in the lower Mekong River basin are holding about 35% of their useful capacity and will likely continue to generate electricity as they do now.
According to the Vietnam Mekong River Commission, with the above conditions and the assessment that the flow from the Lancang River remains low, the flow through Kra-che station (Cambodia) in May 2024 will fluctuate between 8.9 billion m3 and 10.7 billion m3, while the current water storage in Tonle Sap is 1.2 billion m3, so it will not contribute significantly to the mainstream of the Mekong River in the coming time.
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| Figure Forecast of total flow at Tan Chau and Chau Doc stations in May 2024. (Photo: Vietnam Mekong River Commission) |
Combining the above information with tidal forecasts and water resources to the Mekong Delta in May 2024, the Vietnam Mekong River Commission makes comments on flow developments at Tan Chau and Chau Doc.
Accordingly, the maximum daily water level at Tan Chau station in May 2024 tends to fluctuate according to the tide in the range of 0.9 m to 1.4 m. The average daily flow to the Mekong Delta through Tan Chau and Chau Doc stations in May 2024 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,200 m3/s to 5,200 m3/s, lower than the average of many years and the same period in 2023 but higher than in 2020.
The total flow in May 2024 through these two stations will likely be between 9.7 billion m3 and 11 billion m3, about 19 to 28% lower than the multi-year average, about 7 to 18% lower than the same period in 2023, but about 16 to 30% higher than the same period in 2020.
The Vietnam Mekong River Commission assessed that the Mekong Delta has passed the period of greatest saline intrusion and is showing signs of decreasing. However, due to the low water level from upstream and the late start of the rainy season in the Mekong Delta, saline intrusion remains high and may continue to affect until the end of May. Especially on the Vam Co Tay River, due to the limited water supply in the coming time, the saline intrusion situation will continue to last and may affect production and people's lives. The forecast depth of the 4‰ salinity boundary on the main rivers is 40-50km on the Tien and Hau rivers, and 90-110km on the Vam Co Tay River.
Due to the complicated developments of salinity intrusion, localities need to continue to proactively monitor salinity, update salinity forecast information to proactively regulate salinity and freshwater for production and minimize environmental pollution as well as other harmful effects of drought and salinity in the area. Localities in the upper reaches of the delta should consider planting early summer-autumn crops in fields with adequate water resources.
Proactive controlled adaptation
Speaking to the press, Associate Professor Dr. Tran Ba Hoang, Director of the Southern Institute of Water Resources Research, said that the Mekong Delta is facing three major challenges to sustainable development: water security, widespread and prolonged flooding in the future, and delta degradation such as coastal and riverbank erosion and delta lowering. The agriculture and rural development sector identifies and orients important strategies for the delta as proactively adapting in a controlled manner, mastering situations when disadvantages occur, taking water resources as the core to arrange production and orient development.
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| Saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta is forecast to remain high and may continue to affect until the end of May. (Illustration photo: dangcongsan.vn) |
The Mekong Delta needs to be proactive in water resources for production areas based on natural ecology, with three typical types: coastal brackish water aquaculture, fruit and rice.
For coastal areas, which are water-challenged and vulnerable, the key task is to proactively manage water resources, implemented according to the strategy of upgrading coastal irrigation systems such as: Building salinity control works, taking fresh water and proactively transferring fresh water to water-scarce areas with high economic potential such as shrimp farming areas.
Along with irrigation systems to increase water supply, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development encourages people to store water themselves, store water in a distributed manner, and on a household scale.
For floodplain areas, according to the assessment and forecast of the Southern Institute of Water Resources, the frequency of large floods has decreased sharply (about once every 10 - 15 years; in the future, when the upstream reservoirs are completed according to the planning of about 110 billion m3, it will only occur once every 90 - 100 years), medium and small floods appear frequently, so production in floodplain areas needs to change accordingly to best exploit land and water resources with suitable agricultural economic models.
The Mekong Delta provinces need to continue to strengthen non-structural solutions to direct and manage, develop scenarios of drought and saltwater intrusion that may occur in the area and appropriate response solutions. Strengthen and modernize monitoring work, update bulletins of specialized forecasting agencies to serve crop management, facilitate people to have information on water resources to convert short-term and long-term production. Flexibly adjust production schedules according to each season and each year. Change and adjust production models towards using less fresh water and increase incentives for people to store water in ponds, ditches in orchards and in rice fields (for rice) before the forecasted time of saltwater intrusion.
The Mekong Delta provinces review and complete the operating procedures of established irrigation systems to enhance the operation and connection of water resources within the region to improve the efficiency of exploiting land and water resources and irrigation works.
Source: https://thoidai.com.vn/luong-nuoc-ve-dong-bang-song-cuu-long-o-muc-thap-199780.html
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