Lending interest rates forecast to increase slightly in 2025

By the end of 2024, savings interest rates will increase by an average of about 0.5% compared to mid-year, according to statistics from Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS), but are still lower than during the Covid-19 period. Currently, most banks list 12-month savings interest rates below 6% per year, except for a few lower-ranking units or longer-term deposits.

Last year, the average lending rate fell 0.96% compared to the end of 2023, after having dropped about 2.5%.

In particular, VCBS statistics show that the private commercial bank group has a stronger decrease in lending interest rates on financial statements than the state-owned group. In particular, the small-scale bank group is under pressure to lower output interest rates to attract customers and interest rebates tend to increase.

Forecasting 2025, the leader of Tien Phong Bank (TPBank) recently commented that mobilization interest rates will continue to remain stable or increase slightly, in the context of the USD's strength not decreasing, thereby creating pressure on the exchange rate.

Regarding output interest rates, TPBank leaders said that it will be difficult to reduce, but it is in a sideways trend, due to competitive pressure to boost credit. Therefore, the bank's profit margin is still under pressure and is likely to go sideways.

Techcombank Deputy General Director Phung Quang Hung shares the same view, saying that the USD will continue to strengthen in 2025 in the context of the US economy remaining strong compared to other economies, and the country's need to lower interest rates is also slower than forecasts from half a year ago. Techcombank leaders forecast the exchange rate to increase by about 2.5 - 3% this year.

Therefore, in terms of interest rates, on the one hand, the operator wants a low level to maintain economic growth, while controlling inflation at a reasonable level. On this basis, the interest rate level, according to the forecast of Techcombank's leaders, will increase slightly by 0.2-0.25%.

In VCBS's latest forecast, savings interest rates may remain unchanged with expectations that exchange rate pressure will cool down, supporting system liquidity and the State Bank will continue its loose monetary policy. Deposit interest rates have increased in the past half year, and there will be a delay in reflecting in lending interest rates. Therefore, according to VCBS, lending interest rates will increase by about 0.5 - 0.7% this year, in the context of economic recovery and stronger credit demand.

VN (according to VnExpress)

Source: https://baohaiduong.vn/lai-suat-cho-vay-du-bao-tang-nhe-nam-2025-404321.html