Expectations for a breakthrough in import and export in 2025.

DNVN - As 2024 draws to a close, positive signs in import and export activity emerge, opening up great expectations for 2025. The strong increase in export and import turnover not only reflects the recovery of the economy but also presents significant opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese businesses.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade , merchandise exports in the first 10 months of 2024 are estimated at US$335.59 billion, an increase of 14.9% compared to the same period last year. This figure represents outstanding growth in the Asian region, where major economies such as China, South Korea, and Thailand recorded increases of 4.3%, 9.6%, and 3.9%, respectively.

More notably, import turnover reached $312.28 billion, an increase of 16.8%, indicating a surge in demand for raw materials to support domestic production.

With positive signs in Vietnam's import and export sector over the past 10 months, great expectations are high for 2025.

In the list of Vietnam's largest import markets, China continues to lead with a trade value of $117.7 billion, an increase of 31.6%. This rate reflects the proactive preparation of businesses in importing raw materials and components to meet orders for the end of 2024 and to be ready for 2025.

The textile and garment industry is a clear example of this recovery. According to the Vietnam Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex), many businesses are actively importing raw materials, expected to meet the increased order volume in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. The trend of shifting orders from countries like China and Bangladesh to Vietnam has created many opportunities, especially as inventory levels in major markets like the US and EU are decreasing, leading to a resurgence in order demand.

Similarly, the footwear industry has also recorded significant growth. With an export target of $26-27 billion in 2024, the industry is striving to boost production to surpass the $24 billion figure of 2023.

Not only industrial sectors, but also agricultural products have seen breakthroughs thanks to price advantages. Rice and coffee, two key commodities, are both trending upwards in price and are expected to continue to grow next year.

With the achievements already made, the prospects for import and export in 2025 are becoming even brighter.

According to Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), many factors are converging to promote growth, from the stability of the international market to the continued effectiveness of free trade agreements (FTAs).

The recovery of major markets such as the US and EU amidst declining inflation will be a key driver. Increased purchasing power, coupled with the potential to further exploit FTAs ​​like EVFTA and RCEP, will help Vietnamese businesses expand their market share.

However, the challenges are also significant. Technical barriers related to quality, environment, and labor are becoming increasingly stringent. Furthermore, the risk of trade fraud and trade protection measures from other countries also need to be carefully considered by Vietnamese businesses.

To maximize opportunities, businesses need to focus on innovation and enhancing competitiveness. Building long-term strategies, promoting the application of digital technology , and improving the quality of human resources are key to sustainable development.

At the same time, leveraging support from government policies, strengthening trade promotion, and proactively responding to market fluctuations will help businesses stand firm in a fiercely competitive environment.

According to Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong, businesses also need to pay special attention to the risk of being exploited by FTAs ​​to illegally transship goods into Vietnam, affecting the reputation of Vietnamese goods. Close coordination between management agencies and businesses is a decisive factor in ensuring the position of Vietnamese goods in the international market.

The year 2025 promises to bring significant advancements in import and export activities. With thorough preparation and a sound strategy, Vietnamese businesses can fully seize this opportunity to expand further on the global trade map.

Duy Khanh

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/ky-vong-xuat-nhap-khau-2025-but-pha/20241117052353840