Vietnam's economy still has a lot of room for growth.

Citi Bank forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow well in 2024 and the growth momentum will last in the medium and long term.

Citi Bank: Vietnam's economy still has a lot of room for growth

Citi Bank forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow well in 2024 and the growth momentum will last in the medium and long term.

At the workshop “Investment 2025: Decoding variables - Identifying opportunities” organized by Investment Newspaper on December 12, Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung, Head of Corporate Clients - Capital Resources, Citi Bank Vietnam presented a paper on the risks of trade tensions that may occur when Mr. Donald Trump is re-elected as US President for the second time and the opportunities and challenges for Vietnam in this context.

Citi Bank forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow well in 2024 and the growth momentum will continue in the medium and long term. In 2025, Citi Bank forecasts that Vietnam's economic growth could reach 6.6%, higher than the IMF's forecast.  

Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung said that Vietnam still has a lot of room for growth thanks to the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) signed with other countries and regions. This is considered a "reserve" for Vietnam to continue growing and expanding development opportunities.

Vietnam also has geopolitical advantages, being close to the world's second largest economy, China, and favorable trade connections. Consumer spending also greatly supports economic growth. Currently, Vietnam has a population of more than 100 million people, with an estimated GDP per capita of about 4,700 USD in 2024. By the end of 2025, GDP per capita could reach 5,000 USD.

In addition, the shift in production is bringing advantages to Vietnam. Our country is benefiting a lot when businesses shift production to countries in the Asian region, in which Vietnam is a bright spot.

Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung, Head of Corporate Clients - Capital Resources, Citi Bank Vietnam.

“In the past, we often questioned whether Vietnam was a global manufacturing hub, but now it is clear that Vietnam is a hub. In the trend of manufacturing enterprises shifting to Asia, there are three countries chosen as the most destinations, including Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Vietnam alone has a bright spot in attracting FDI capital. In terms of GDP, Vietnam is the country with the highest FDI capital attraction,” said Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung.

In the medium and long term, Vietnam still has great potential to attract FDI thanks to its geopolitical advantages, young population, and good consumer spending. In particular, Vietnam is currently implementing mergers, streamlining its apparatus, and strongly reforming its institutions, creating favorable conditions for the entire business environment, contributing to economic growth, while having strong finances to cope with less positive scenarios.

With the above advantages, Vietnam's economy is driven by positive momentum in exporting consumer goods, computers, etc. The real estate market is recovering, the banking industry is also benefiting when corporate bonds are bought back more, reducing risks.  

"The proof for the above analysis is that more and more international organizations have recognized Vietnam's high economic growth, which is a positive bright spot," Mr. Hoang Xuan Trung emphasized.

However, Vietnam is the country with the third largest trade surplus in the US, so it is not surprising if Vietnam is named to apply higher tax rates during President Donald Trump's term, Mr. Trung said. In addition, exchange rate issues can also affect the State Bank's operating policies. At that time, the Vietnamese currency needs to be in good health to cope with the depreciation. In this context, the representative of Citi Bank suggested that the State can apply more fiscal policies in addition to monetary policies to further support the economy.  

Source: https://baodautu.vn/citi-bank-kinh-te-viet-nam-van-con-rat-nhieu-du-dia-cho-tang-truong-d232443.html