There are up to 3 economic growth scenarios built for 2025, corresponding to the set targets of 6.5-7% growth as resolved by the National Assembly and 8%-10% as the Government's target. Which scenario will develop will depend on the actions of the entire economy.
There are up to 3 economic growth scenarios built for 2025, corresponding to the set targets of 6.5-7% growth as resolved by the National Assembly and 8%-10% as the Government's target. Which scenario will develop will depend on the actions of the entire economy.
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| Strongly developing the domestic market; implementing activities to connect supply and demand and promote trade; increasing total retail sales of goods and service revenue by about 10-12% are among the tasks mentioned in Resolution 01/2025. |
Three scenarios for growth
Not just one scenario like every year, but there have been 3 economic growth scenarios built for 2025. These three scenarios have been put forward in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP on the main tasks and solutions to implement the Socio-Economic Development Plan and State Budget Estimate for 2025, recently issued by the Prime Minister.
These three scenarios correspond to the socio-economic development targets set for 2025. Specifically, according to the National Assembly Resolution, in 2025, GDP growth will reach 6.5-7%, striving to reach 7-7.5%. Meanwhile, the Government is determined to bring the economy to a growth rate of 8%, and even higher, possibly up to double digits (10%), if conditions are favorable.
Accordingly, in the lowest scenario, for the whole year's economic growth to reach 6.5-7%, the first quarter's growth rate must be 6.2-6.6%. This figure is 6.5-7% in the second quarter; 6.4-6.8% in the first quarter; 6.6-7.1% in the third quarter; 6.5-7.1% in the first nine months; and 6.6-7.2% in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, in the scenario of economic growth reaching 8%, as the Government's target, the first quarter's GDP growth must be 7.7%. The corresponding figures for the second quarter, six months, third quarter, nine months and fourth quarter are 8%; 7.9%; 8.1%; 7.9% and 8.3%.
The highest and perhaps most challenging is the 10% growth target that the Government expects to achieve, in order to create a foundation for the acceleration and breakthrough period of 2026-2030, with double-digit growth. Accordingly, GDP growth must reach at least 9% in all quarters of the year. Specifically, the first quarter must grow by 9.4%; the second quarter is 10%; 6 months is 9.7%; the third quarter is 19%; 9 months is 9.8%; the fourth quarter is 10.5% and the whole year is 10%.
Looking at these figures, it can be seen that the 6.5-7% growth scenario is the easiest to achieve. Because with a growth rate of 7.09% in 2024, plus a more positive trend of the Vietnamese and global economies, the possibility of achieving the same growth rate in 2024 is possible.
In a recently published report, UOB Bank has raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7%, instead of the previous 6.6%. According to the bank's explanation, they raised Vietnam's growth forecast after GDP growth in 2024 far exceeded the overall forecast (6.7%), as well as the set target (6.5%). "We expect more positive changes from domestic drivers, such as production, domestic consumption and tourist arrivals, especially in the first half of the year," UOB experts commented.
Speaking earlier at the Spring Economic Forum, Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Economist, Executive Director of Global Market and Economic Research, UOB Bank (Singapore), said that although Vietnam will face many major challenges related to many economic sectors, there are also three significant opportunities to promote economic development this year.
With an impressive GDP growth rate of 7.09% in 2024, Vietnam has demonstrated its resilience in a volatile global context. This is a solid foundation for Vietnam to overcome current difficulties and take advantage of new development opportunities in the coming time.
Meanwhile, the research team of expert Can Van Luc and BIDV Training and Research Institute considers the 7-7.5% growth scenario as "negative", with about a 20% chance of happening. The hypothetical situation is that external risks increase and have more negative impacts, the world economy grows more slowly than expected, and domestically, growth drivers have not been as effective as expected or are only at the same level as in 2024... That is, according to expert Can Van Luc, at the very least, GDP growth will reach 7-7.5%, equivalent to the target that the National Assembly assigned to the Government.
The remaining two scenarios, according to the research team of expert Can Van Luc, have a 60% probability of occurring for the 8% growth scenario. This is the so-called "baseline" scenario, assuming that the economic recovery momentum continues to be maintained, along with the determination for institutional breakthroughs, the confidence of businesses and people is strengthened, and new and traditional growth drivers are promoted and exploited more effectively. As for the positive scenario, 9-9.5% growth, the probability of occurrence is 20%. And the condition is that global economic growth is higher than forecast; growth drivers are more effective; the economy is restructured, strategic breakthroughs are promoted...
The path of the economy in 2025
There are many economic growth scenarios being put forward. Therefore, which direction the economy will go in will depend largely on the solutions and actions that ministries, localities, and the business community will implement. Along with that, it also depends on the developments of the global economy, global geopolitical fluctuations, as well as the policies of the administration of US President Donald Trump.
Several challenges continue to be pointed out by economists, although there is still a fairly broad consensus on the growth potential of the Vietnamese economy.
“Currently, the growth rate of final consumption is only about 5-6%, compared to before the pandemic, it was a double-digit increase. To promote growth, it is necessary to increase the stimulus for the final consumption of the economy,” said Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam, former General Director of the General Statistics Office, at the recent Economic Forum. According to him, we cannot be assured with this driving force that accounts for 63% of GDP growth.
There are many economic growth scenarios being put forward. Therefore, which direction the economy will go in will depend largely on the solutions and actions that ministries, localities, and the business community will take. 
Similarly, exports may face difficulties when US trade policies change. Public investment disbursement is also not easy to break through. New growth drivers are also unlikely to be able to exert strong effectiveness soon.
Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP of the Government has proposed 12 groups of key tasks and solutions. In particular, institutional breakthroughs are considered “breakthroughs of breakthroughs”, which must be done early and ahead of the curve to pave the way for development. Along with that, priority is given to strongly promoting economic growth in conjunction with maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major balances of the economy and having high surpluses…
In these two groups of solutions, the Government directs to have stronger, more drastic and timely solutions to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital from the beginning of 2025, especially important national projects, key works and national target programs; using public investment to lead private investment, strengthening public-private cooperation. At the same time, build an effective mechanism to selectively attract foreign investment capital, in a number of potential areas, creating breakthroughs and new driving forces for growth such as chips, semiconductors, innovation, green hydrogen, etc.
Similarly, promote and create breakthroughs for new growth drivers, develop green economy, circular economy, e-commerce, new and effective business models; promote emerging industries and fields...
Among the solutions to promote growth in 2025, Mr. Dau Anh Tuan, Deputy General Secretary of the Vietnam Federation of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), emphasized the “growth space” that the business sector can contribute to. Therefore, according to Mr. Tuan, the important thing is to resolve the bottlenecks for this sector, so that they can quickly bring capital and goods into the economy.
Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, when emphasizing what needs to be done to accelerate and make a breakthrough in the economy by 2025, also emphasized the need to unleash resources from the business sector, including private enterprises, state-owned enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises. “In each industry, sector and locality, breakthrough goals for the coming period must be identified. Dynamic regions and growth poles such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City must grow higher to affirm their leading role in leading the growth of the whole country,” Minister Nguyen Chi Dung emphasized.
This task has also been assigned to localities by the Prime Minister. Many localities across the country, including Ho Chi Minh City, have also committed to making efforts to achieve this goal. On the day the Government met with localities, Mr. Nguyen Van Mai, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee, affirmed that Ho Chi Minh City has identified 2025 as the year of acceleration to reach the finish line, striving to complete and exceed all socio-economic targets, prepare plans and deploy necessary conditions to enter the new term with the goal of double-digit growth.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/kich-ban-nao-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-2025-d240694.html
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