No power shortage in 2025

10/21/2024 06:40

Electricity growth in 2025 is expected to reach 13.4%. (Photo: EVN).

(PLVN) - Electricity supply in 2025 will still meet demand in most months of the year, but there are still some potential risks for the Northern region during peak times at the end of the dry season.

There are still potential risks to power supply in the dry season in the North.

Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) has just reported to the Government the power supply scenario for 2025. The two growth scenarios are 9.4% and 13.2% respectively compared to 2024. Accordingly, with the baseline scenario, the load demand is about 339.17 billion kWh, an increase of 9.4% compared to 2024. With the test scenario (to prepare solutions to ensure electricity in case the economy continues to recover strongly), it is estimated that the load demand is about 350.97 billion kWh, an increase of 13.2% compared to 2024.

EVN believes that electricity supply in 2025 will still meet demand in most months of the year, but there are still some potential risks for the Northern region during peak times at the end of the dry season (from May to July, if demand increases suddenly).

EVN also said that there are many difficulties that could affect electricity supply, such as the ability to supply natural gas in 2025 will decrease sharply compared to previous years; The progress of many new power source projects is behind schedule; Large hydropower sources have basically been built and put into operation, with only a few small-scale hydropower projects remaining.

Meanwhile, coal-fired thermal power will face many difficulties in arranging credit capital and project implementation will also have many potential risks after Vietnam made a strong commitment with the international community on the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 0 (Net Zero) by 2050.

EVN said that the Power Plan VIII aims to reach 6,000 MW of offshore wind power by 2030, but the implementation time of a project will take 6-8 years. Currently, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is developing a pilot project for the development of a new wind power development mechanism, along with synchronous mechanisms and policies to submit to the Government. New renewable energy sources (RE) added in the Power Plan VIII are still in need of mechanisms and policies from competent authorities to implement according to the plan...

In addition, the gas-fired power source expected to replace coal-fired thermal power in the coming years is also uncertain to be completed on schedule. Because except for the Nhon Trach 3&4 and Hiep Phuoc 1 Power Plant projects with a total capacity of about 2,824MW that can be completed before 2030, the remaining LNG projects are unlikely to meet the completion schedule before 2030.

Ensuring adequate electricity is very important.

At the meeting to ensure adequate electricity supply and national energy security in the coming years (held on October 19), Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh assessed that, up to this point, it can be affirmed that there will be no electricity shortage in 2024 even though consumption will increase by about 11 - 13% compared to 2023 (EVN data shows that, by the end of the third quarter, the total electricity production and import reached 232.8 billion kWh, an increase of nearly 11%; commercial electricity reached more than 208 billion kWh, an increase of more than 11%).

According to the Prime Minister, ensuring sufficient electricity is very important to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in the context of a global investment downturn. In the past 9 months, Vietnam disbursed 17 billion USD of FDI capital - the highest in many years. Therefore, in 2025, according to reports, with electricity demand increasing by about 12 - 13%, equivalent to the need to increase by about 2,200 - 2,500 MW of capacity.

The Prime Minister said that this is not a big problem and requested that there should be no power shortage until 2025 with specific solutions. Accordingly, the Prime Minister requested to urgently and effectively implement the Decree on the direct electricity trading mechanism issued by the Government; Ensure sufficient fuel (coal, gas) for electricity production according to system demand, including promoting domestic coal mining with a long-term plan, and at the same time study the import of coal from Laos, reducing imports from other sources.

The Prime Minister also directed that the power transmission lines from Laos and China must be completed quickly to increase the import of electricity from Laos and China. Of which, the 500kV Lao Cai - Vinh Yen line must be completed within 6 months, and the 220kV Nam Sum - Nong Cong line must be completed in 2024.

In addition, the Government and local ministries and branches are actively addressing the transitional renewable energy sources. Recently, Permanent Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Hoa Binh inspected and listened to the difficulties and problems of the transitional renewable energy projects; the Deputy Prime Minister affirmed that the difficulties and problems of these projects need to be resolutely resolved and resolved so that the renewable energy projects facing difficulties can be implemented, put into operation and exploited soon, and resources will not be wasted in investment activities in renewable energy projects.

This is expected and believed by many investors of transitional projects that they will soon complete contract negotiations with EVN to have the best financial resources to operate power projects, providing stable output, especially in the context that during the dry season, EVN's ability to ensure power supply still has potential risks.

Source: https://baophapluat.vn/khong-de-thieu-dien-trong-nam-2025-post529158.html