The best investment channel for the first quarter of the year: Gold, real estate, stocks?

Many investment channels showed good performance after the first quarter passed.

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At the end of the first quarter, the price of SJC gold bars was listed by large enterprises at 99.5-101.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell), also a record price for this item so far. The difference between the buying and selling price is 2 million VND/tael.

The price of plain gold rings at the end of the first quarter was listed by large enterprises at 99-101.2 million VND/tael (buy - sell).

Since the beginning of the year, after 3 months, the price of gold rings has increased by more than 23%, while the price of gold bars has also increased by 20%, surpassing most investment channels on the market.

If calculated from the beginning of 2024, precious metals show a remarkable increase in price. Gold rings increased by more than 60% from the price of 63 million VND/tael, while gold bars also increased by more than 35%.

Domestic precious metals increased in line with international market developments. World gold increased about 8% in March and 18% in the first quarter of this year.

According to experts, the world gold price has increased since the beginning of the year due to support from the purchasing power of large investment funds and global factors such as exchange rates, monetary policies and geopolitical tensions. Gold has long been considered a "safe haven" in times of instability, especially when factors such as monetary policies and political tensions have a strong impact on the global economy.

Concerns about trade tariffs, especially US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose tariffs on various countries, have raised concerns about a global trade war. This has not only disrupted currency markets but also raised concerns about rising inflation in the US.

President Donald Trump sees tariffs as a tool to boost the budget, offset promised tax cuts, and help boost struggling US industry.

In addition, monetary policy decisions by central banks also have a major impact on gold price trends. Lower interest rates from global central banks reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, as gold does not pay interest. This makes gold a more attractive option in a climate of low interest rates.

Global gold demand, including over-the-counter transactions, rose 1% in 2024 to a record high, according to data from the World Gold Council. Central banks, in particular, accelerated their gold purchases in the fourth quarter of the year, reflecting continued demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty.

This is not the first time that gold prices have increased, but it has happened in the past. During the 2008 financial crisis, the precious metal increased sharply from about 800 USD/ounce at the beginning of the year to more than 1,900 USD/ounce in 2011. Similarly, when the Covid-19 pandemic broke out in 2020, the price of gold also peaked at nearly 2,070 USD/ounce due to the massive flow of money to safe-haven assets.

The domestic gold market has fluctuated strongly recently (Photo: Tien Tuan).

Looking at the investment prospects with existing variables, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, Lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics , commented that with the gold investment channel, prices fluctuate more according to geopolitical and global economic instability than seasonal factors. Seasonal factors only occur when gold prices are stable and the world economic situation is relatively "calm". Currently, gold prices increase regardless, even in the low season if the trade war is tense.

Mr. Huan believes that the gold price has increased too strongly, the possibility of adjustment is very high. However, gold has established a new price level, it is difficult for it to fall back to the mark of 70-80 million VND/tael.

"You should only buy when the price is down, not when the price is up, avoid chasing the market, the risk will be very high. You should not buy at this time, you should wait for strong correction sessions, buying will be safer. For sellers who take profit, this time is also an opportunity to sell part of the portfolio and wait for the price to drop to buy back at a lower price," Mr. Huan suggested.

According to experts, gold is a safe investment channel, but when the gold price is above 101 million VND/tael as it is now, it is not a safe channel.

But if you buy gold for the long term, it is safe, but the rate of return is low. In the past 20 years, the rate of return, even during times of strong price increases, has been only 8%, lower than investing in stocks and real estate, and only higher than saving.

Stock

At the end of the first quarter, the VN-Index - the index representing the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) - closed at 1,306.86 points. Thus, since the beginning of the year, the stock index has increased by 3%. In 2024, this index will increase by 12%.

If comparing the general stock indexes or more specific indexes such as VN30-Index, investors can easily see that the gold investment channel still records a better growth rate. However, the indexes are only representative of the large market. Many stocks in the first quarter of the year also recorded good growth performance.

Some stock codes on the HoSE recorded an accumulation of about 20% after 3 months, including GEE, MSR, VIC, SBT, VIX, CTD, VND...

An analyst at a securities company said that investing in stocks is considered an "opportunity for the patient". He advised allocating 50-60% of assets to stocks if he is willing to wait for results after a few years. "As for those who want to surf, there are not many opportunities", he said.

Stock investment is seen as an opportunity for patient people (Photo: Hai Long).

Savings

Bank savings are a good choice for investors with low risk appetite.

In the first two months of the year, deposit interest rates at banks have been increasing continuously. Many banks pay interest rates of 6%/year or more.

However, in the past month, statistics from Dan Tri reporters show that 25 banks have simultaneously reversed and reduced interest rates. This move took place after the Prime Minister directed "hot" inspections and examinations of banks that have increased deposit interest rates in recent times. Government leaders also requested strict handling of violations and non-compliance with the directive. In particular, the Governor of the State Bank needs to consider and decide on the use of management tools on credit growth limits and license revocation according to regulations.

The average interest rate for a 12-month term at banks is currently only 5-5.7%/year. The number of banks paying interest from 6% can be counted on the fingers.

Compared to other channels, the profit from bank savings is not too outstanding. However, the plus point is that depositors do not have to worry about risks, money is always kept safe.

Savings interest rates are low (Photo: Manh Quan).

Economist Dinh Trong Thinh assessed that the interest rate reduction by a series of banks is an important signal to support the economy. Low interest rates mean lower borrowing costs, helping businesses reduce their financial burden and creating favorable conditions for expanding production and business.

Previously, according to forecasts from securities companies, this year, the possibility of mobilization interest rates will remain stable. The reason is that there is support from the State Bank's efforts to promote credit along with the orientation to continue to closely follow domestic and international market developments, support liquidity, and create conditions for units to provide credit to the economy.

Real estate

Unlike other investment channels, real estate does not have a representative index to compare profitability. However, in the first quarter of 2025, real estate is assessed to have many "hot" developments. According to statistics from a market research unit, in just the first 2 months of the year, the selling price of land in the suburbs of Hanoi increased from 30% to 80% depending on the area, for example, Quoc Oai recorded an increase of 74%.

This shows that the land price level in the suburbs still has a good growth trend after a year. However, the amount of interest in land has not increased correspondingly, even showing signs of going sideways or decreasing slightly, partly reflecting that the number of transactions has not had many sudden changes compared to last year.

Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, commented that land prices in the suburbs of Hanoi have increased continuously in recent years, causing many investors and buyers to wait and watch the market before making a decision. In addition, recently, after information about the planned merger of some provinces, speculators have tended to look for opportunities in provincial areas instead of focusing on land plots near the capital as before.

In fact, since the beginning of the year, most analysts have commented that after a period of "freezing", the real estate market has passed the reversal point and entered a new growth cycle from this year.

Real estate enters a new growth cycle from this year (Photo: Hoang Giam).

This view was expressed when three laws related to real estate, including the 2024 Land Law, the 2023 Housing Law and the 2023 Real Estate Business Law, took effect from August 2024. The legal impetus has promoted new supply, improved the psychology of home buyers for both residential and investment purposes, and kept home loan interest rates at reasonable levels. Investors have also returned after a period of restructuring and purification.

Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh stated that from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025, the market will enter a consolidation phase. Investors will gradually feel more confident about the development prospects of the real estate industry.

The apartment segment will now give way to private houses and townhouses. After this period, the market will move towards a period of growth, expected to start from the second quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2025. Investors at this time will no longer place too much emphasis on selling price and legal factors like when the market was gloomy.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/kenh-dau-tu-sinh-loi-tot-nhat-quy-dau-nam-vang-bat-dong-san-chung-khoan-20250401005008056.htm