The Israeli army mobilized a record number of reservists for the war with Hamas (Photo: Getty).
The objectives of Operation "Swords of Iron" that the Israeli military has launched against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip appear to be much more ambitious than any the military has previously planned in Gaza and could last for months.
But questions have been raised about whether their goals are realistic, and how Israel's military commanders will make them happen.
The Israeli military also had a mission to rescue at least 199 hostages held in undisclosed locations across Gaza. Herzi Halevi, Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), vowed to "wipe out" Hamas and singled out its leader as the number one target.
But does Tel Aviv have a final vision of what Gaza will look like after 16 years of Hamas control there?
"I don't think Israel can eliminate every Hamas member, because that is the idea of radical Islam. But you can weaken this force as much as possible so that it is no longer able to operate," Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar stressed in a speech at a rally marking "Jerusalem Day" or Al-Quds Day.
Mr. Yahya Sinwar, head of Hamas in Gaza (Photo: SOPA).
Yahya Sinwar has now been identified as Israel’s top target. This may be a more realistic goal. Israel has fought four wars with Hamas and all attempts to stop its rocket attacks have failed. Destroying or weakening Hamas would be complicated, said Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at Tel Aviv University.
He said that in addition to the strength of more than 25,000 members of Hamas' military wing, this force also has 80,000-90,000 civilian members, also known as Dawa.
Risky ground attack plan
Experts say military operations are often risky, depending on a number of factors that could derail them. Hamas’s armed wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, would be ready to counter an Israeli attack. Explosive devices would be planted and ambushes planned. The brigade could use its notorious and extensive tunnel network to attack Israeli forces.
In 2014, Israeli infantry battalions suffered heavy losses from anti-tank mines, sniper fire and Hamas ambushes, while hundreds of civilians were killed in fighting north of Gaza City. That is why Israel ordered the evacuation of residents in the northern Gaza Strip south of the Wadi Gaza River.
Map of Gaza, showing urban areas, refugee camps and border crossings between Gaza, Israel and Egypt (Photo: BBC).
“The government and the military feel they have the support of the international community – at least Western leaders. The philosophy is ‘let’s mobilize, we have plenty of time,’” said Yossi Melman, one of Israel’s leading intelligence and security journalists.
If Israel is indeed planning to deploy troops to attack Gaza, these forces will face a range of challenges, some of which will be similar to recent urban battles and others that stem from the unique characteristics of Gaza's urban terrain and the enemy situation.
But what exactly would that look like? The realities of urban warfare in Iraq and Ukraine, along with Israel’s previous experience in Gaza, are clear examples.
Israel has experience conducting ground operations in Gaza and against Hamas. During the 50-day Operation Protective Edge in 2014, Israel – which called up 75,000 reservists – launched a coordinated air, land and sea operation, supporting three IDF divisions entering Gaza.
The last time Israeli forces entered Gaza was in 2014, meaning Hamas and other militant groups have had nearly a decade to prepare their defenses.
There are also tactical challenges, as Hamas has a significant arsenal of rockets and mortars in Gaza. In 2014, the group fired some 6,000 short-, medium- and long-range rockets during a 50-day war. And it fired more than 4,500 rockets in just three days, starting with the attack on the morning of October 7.
According to the 2021 report, Hamas has more than 8,000 rockets, meaning that even if the organization has not increased its stockpile in the past two years, it still has thousands available to use against IDF ground forces.
One challenge that will be significantly more serious than what Israel has faced in its previous urban warfare experience is the use of a full range of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), from military suicide models to commercial, off-the-shelf quadcopters modified to drop munitions. Hamas released video of its forces using UAVs in the recent offensive, showing larger UAVs in its inventory similar to the Iranian-made ones used by Russian forces in Ukraine.
In the Ukrainian conflict, UAVs also became a major combatant, with Kiev surprising with the effective use of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAVs against Russian forces.
Another major challenge is Hamas’s extensive network of underground tunnels in Gaza. Experts say Hamas is believed to use the tunnels to hide, stay safe, and launch surprise attacks. They are also used defensively to move between combat positions to avoid Israeli air and ground fire.
One problem for the Israeli military is that Hamas will seek to use a defensive strategy that relies on close quarters combat, strongholds (concrete and steel buildings, often with basements and tunnels) and snipers. In 2014, Hamas deployed between 2,500 and 3,500 fighters to defend Gaza using rockets, mortars, anti-tank guided missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, machine guns and small arms, mostly from fortified positions.
And then there is the task of rescuing the hostages safely from Hamas, most of whom are Israelis, but also a large number of foreign nationals and dual nationals, including Americans, French and British. President Emmanuel Macron has promised French-Israeli families to bring their loved ones home: "France will never abandon its children."
It is unclear how much the fate of the hostages will influence military planners. French strategist Colonel Michel Goya said the IDF had a simple choice: either rescue the hostages or go in “to do as much damage to Hamas as possible.”
Calls from families of those held by Hamas are also increasing pressure on Israeli leaders.
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