Iran has begun to show signs of goodwill in negotiations with the US, however, in the current chaotic context, Washington believes that it is a very long journey, unless Tehran takes concrete actions to prove it.
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| Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said he is open to resuming negotiations with the US. (Source: AP) |
slim chance
On August 27, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared that he was open to resuming negotiations with the United States over the country's rapidly developing nuclear program, while asserting that cooperation with the "enemy" is "harmless."
In a televised speech, Khamenei said there was no obstacle to resuming cooperation with the US. However, he noted: "We do not need to place our hopes on the other side or wait for their approval."
This statement is seen as a sign allowing the government of President Masoud Pezeshkian to remove the "red lines" and negotiate with the US on Iran's nuclear program. Mr. Khamenei has the decisive voice in Iran's strategic issues.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's stance this time also recalls Iran's stance at the time it reached a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, in which Tehran's nuclear program was significantly curtailed in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
Still, it remains unclear how much room President Pezeshkian will have to push for talks with Washington, especially as the Middle East remains troubled by the Israel-Hamas conflict and the US prepares for the November presidential election.
After then-US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018, Iran's 85-year-old supreme leader sometimes urged and sometimes rejected talks with Washington.
There have been indirect talks between Iran and the United States in recent years, with Oman and Qatar, two of the United States' interlocutors in the Middle East on Iran, mediating. Khamenei's comments came a day after Qatar's prime minister visited the country.
On the Washington side, after Iran's new move, the US State Department shared with AP : "We will judge Iran's leaders by their actions, not their words. We have long said that we consider diplomacy the best way to achieve an effective and lasting solution regarding Iran's nuclear program.
“However, we are far from that today, given Iran’s escalatory actions on all fronts, including its nuclear escalation and its failure to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog. If Iran wants to demonstrate seriousness or a new approach, it should stop its nuclear escalation and begin meaningful cooperation with the IAEA.”
Since the deal collapsed, Iran has abandoned all limits the deal placed on its program and enriched uranium to 60% purity — close to the 90% level needed to make weapons, according to US assessments.
Surveillance cameras installed by the IAEA have been destroyed, while Iran has banned some of the agency’s most experienced inspectors. Iranian officials have increasingly threatened that they could pursue nuclear weapons.
Less concessions, lack of trust
Meanwhile, tensions between Iran and Israel have reached a boiling point over the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip.
Tehran launched an unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel in April. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran also prompted Iran to threaten retaliation against Israel.
President Pezeshkian campaigned successfully in part on a pledge to re-engage with the West through negotiations.
Khamenei’s statements as Iran’s supreme leader may help him do so. Iran’s new foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, was also deeply involved in negotiations on the 2015 deal.
In his speech, Mr. Khameini mentioned the phrase "tactical retreat": "After doing everything possible, sometimes it is necessary to make a tactical retreat, but we should not abandon our goals or our views at the first sign of difficulty."
In the immediate future, difficulties can be seen from both sides. While Iran has just elected a new president, the US will also hold a presidential election on November 5. Iran is worried that Donald Trump will return to power.
The US has been engaged in indirect talks with Iran under President Joe Biden and it remains unclear how that would be delivered if Vice President Harris is elected.
“I will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend our forces and our interests against Iran,” Ms Harris said in a speech at the Democratic National Convention last week.
RANE Network, a risk intelligence firm, predicts that if Harris wins, the likelihood of a deal on Iran will increase as the Israel-Hamas conflict ends.
According to RANE, once the talks begin, Iran will likely demand more safeguards regarding the possibility of the US withdrawing from a new deal because the US withdrew from the previous deal in 2018.
Iran is also unlikely to make many nuclear concessions, such as dismantling more advanced centrifuges, because it wants to be able to restart its nuclear program as quickly as possible in the event the US withdraws from the new deal, given concerns about the sustainability of any new deal.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/iran-noi-den-rut-lui-chien-thuat-my-canh-giac-cao-do-va-yeu-cau-chung-minh-bang-hanh-dong-284350.html
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