IMF maintains Vietnam's economic growth forecast in 2025

According to the latest IMF report, Vietnam's economy is forecast to grow by 6.1%, unchanged from the predicted growth rate in 2024.

October 22 (US time), International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released an updated report on the World Economic Outlook 2025. In which, the economy Vietnam economy is forecast to grow 6.1% next year, unchanged from the 2024 growth forecast, but still higher than regional peers such as China (4.5%), Indonesia (5.1%), Thailand (3%) and Malaysia (4.4%).

According to the IMF, Vietnam's economy is forecast to grow 6.1% in 2025, higher than many countries in the region. Illustration photo: Government Electronic Newspaper.

The IMF also forecasts that Vietnam's consumer prices will increase by 3.5% in 2025, down 0.6% compared to 2024. Regarding the unemployment rate, the IMF also forecasts that Vietnam will have a slight decrease, from 2.1% in 2024 to 2% in 2025.

Overall, the IMF forecasts global economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2025, unchanged from its forecast in July. In contrast, global growth over the next five years is expected to slow to an average of 3.1% a year, well below pre-COVID-19 growth levels.

However, according to IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the global economy has achieved a “soft landing,” in which inflation has generally cooled without rising unemployment. In a blog post, Mr. Gourinchas said: "Overall, the fight against global inflation has been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries."

But in an interview with Reuters, Mr. Gourinchas said there was a risk that monetary policy could be difficult to loosen if some countries did not cut interest rates after inflation fell. He asserted: “This could put pressure on economic growth and employment.”

In addition, when taking into account risks to the global economic outlook, the IMF warned of the possibility of tariffs and trade retaliation rising sharply in 2025, but did not directly mention recent statements by US presidential candidate Donald Trump about imposing 10% tariffs on global imports into the US, and 60% on goods from China.

Instead, the IMF report presented several unfavorable scenarios for the global economy, including: Bilateral tariffs between the US, the European Union and China increase by 10%; US tariffs on imported goods increase by 10%; the number of migrants to the US and Europe decreases; and the same global financial markets. “chaos” . If all of the above “scenarios” occur, the IMF predicts that global GDP will decrease by 0.8% in 2025 and by 1.3% in 2026.

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