Stock Market Perspective Week of March 31-April 4: Pressure to restructure portfolios waiting for first quarter business results

Vietnam's stock market continued to face correction pressure last week, especially in the last three sessions of the week when concerns about escalating tariffs mounted.

On March 26, the US imposed a 25% import tax on cars, 10 times higher than the previous rate, effective from April 2, 2025. This move caused global auto stocks to plummet, negatively affecting investor sentiment, which was already unstable due to the prolonged trade war. In addition, on April 2, the US is expected to announce a reciprocal tax policy targeting a group of 15 countries with high taxes and large trade surpluses, of which Vietnam is at risk of being affected.

Notably, market liquidity has weakened for the third consecutive week, with foreign investors continuing the strong net selling trend on HoSE with a value of -2,107.1 billion VND this week.

According to experts from Pinetree Securities Company, this shows that although the increase has slowed down, the current selling pressure is not too great. Last week was still a difficult week for trading because after a period of strong growth since the beginning of the year, investor sentiment was somewhat more cautious when VN-Index continuously failed to conquer the 1,340 point zone, at the same time, the excitement of Vingroup stocks starting right in the first session of the week (March 24) was also one of the reasons why investors were worried that a strong crash could occur.

Over the past 4 trading sessions, VN-Index has continuously broken through the MA5, MA10 and MA20 support lines corresponding to the 1,324 - 1,326 point range, causing investors to tend to stay out to protect the achievements made since the beginning of the year.

Next week, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy, VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, said that the market can maintain a cautious sentiment, VN-Index can test the important support zone of 1,300 points (+/-10 points). However, the possibility of the index falling deeper than this zone is not high thanks to 3 points.

First, tariff concerns have largely factored into the recent correction.

Second, Vietnam has recently taken strong and timely steps to minimize the risk of being imposed “harsh” tariffs by the US, including signing trade agreements worth up to 90 billion USD with the US and considering reducing tariffs on a number of imported products such as automobiles, ethanol, LNG, agricultural products, wood and wood products to somewhat balance trade with important trading partners.

Third, the direct impact of tariffs on the stock market is limited because export-related stocks account for only a small proportion of the stock index structure. Therefore, the risks and impacts of tariffs may be overstated.

Mr. Hinh maintains his view that if the VN-Index retreats to the support zone around 1,300 points (+/-10 points), it will open up opportunities for disbursement at good capital prices for medium- and long-term goals, especially in sectors with positive prospects this year such as banking, securities, residential real estate, electricity, and public investment. In 2025, the market is converging many supporting factors to expect a positive trend, including attractive valuations, positive corporate profit growth prospects, great benefits from the implementation of the KRX system and market upgrade.

According to experts from Pinetree Securities Company, the focus of stock markets, including Vietnam, will be on the reciprocal tax policy on trade partners of President Donald Trump's administration on April 2. Therefore, the first three trading sessions of the week of March 31 - April 4 are expected to continue to cause discomfort for investors if the developments remain the same as last week, which is the scenario of VN-Index moving sideways within the range of 1,315 - 1,326 points, with an accumulation base around the 1,315 - 1,317 point area while waiting for the market to send out new signals.

Another factor that could have a big impact on the overall trend of the week is the time when estimated figures for the first quarter of 2025 business results are gradually revealed, and April is also the time when businesses hold general meetings of shareholders and announce business plans.

Experts from Pinetree Securities Company believe that this will be a new driving force for stock price increases. Therefore, stock groups will become more differentiated based on news and the market will be more difficult to trade if investors do not choose the right stocks that are chosen by cash flow.

The financial reporting season will be the time for cash flow to look for investment opportunities in the second quarter of 2025. Therefore, the general trend next week is still expected to return to the 1,330 point area if selling pressure does not increase sharply. In a more negative scenario where a shakeout may occur before the market recovers, the VN-Index may fall further to test the 1,302 point mark, but the possibility of breaking through this threshold is unlikely.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-313-44-ap-luc-co-cau-danh-muc-cho-ket-qua-kinh-doanh-quy-i-d260371.html