The market may move sideways and accumulate, and money will move quickly between groups of stocks to look for short-term opportunities.
Stock Market Perspective Week 10-14/2: Testing Strong Resistance at 1,280 - 1,300 Points
The market may move sideways and accumulate, and money will move quickly between groups of stocks to look for short-term opportunities.
Market developments after the Lunar New Year holiday of At Ty 2025 started the session with red covering the whole session due to concerns that US President Donald Trump's economic policies could lead to a trade war.
Foreign investors' activities continued to impact market sentiment with strong net selling, continuing the selling trend over the past few years, due to exchange rate stories and geopolitical fluctuations.
According to the Global Economics and Markets Research Department of UOB Bank (Singapore), President Trump’s high-risk tariff threats, combined with last-minute negotiations with US trading partners, may become the “new normal”. Financial markets may be complacent in not fully recognizing the macro implications of tariff threats and not fully pricing in an appropriate “tariff risk premium”.
The USD is the main beneficiary of this “tariff risk premium” amid rising US inflation expectations. UOB forecasts the USD-Index (DXY) to rise to 112.6 by Q2 2025.
This widening interest rate differential will be an important driver of USD strength against other major currencies, further strengthening the USD in the first half of 2025.
Returning to the domestic market, there was more excitement in the last 3 sessions of the week when the market gradually regained green with information on the business results of many enterprises and industries with good results, especially the banking group. At the end of the first trading week after Tet, the VN-Index closed at 1,275 points, up slightly by 0.7% compared to the closing level before the holiday. At one point, the VN-Index almost reached 1,280 points in the last session of the week. The market increased in both price and liquidity, helping to strengthen the positive signal in the medium term, and has the potential to test the 1,300 point level.
The market was supported by positive domestic news, including the Government's plan to submit to the National Assembly an adjustment of the 2025 GDP growth target from 6-6.5% to 8.0% and an increase in the inflation target (CPI) to 4.5-5%.
It can be seen that the Government is very determined to promote growth and this implies that fiscal policies and especially monetary policies will continue to be strongly expanded in 2025. This trend will have a positive impact on asset channels, including stocks.
At the same time, the January 2025 macroeconomic data released by the General Statistics Office on February 6 showed a fairly positive start for the economy in 2025. Despite being affected by the long holiday, industrial production (IIP) and realized public investment still grew positively compared to the same period despite fewer working days.
The economic growth has accelerated since the beginning of this year, not “slow due to the holiday mentality” like previous years. The current context is helping to improve the sentiment of domestic investors.
Entering the next trading week, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy, VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, said that VN-Index will test the resistance zone of 1,280 - 1,300 points. This is a very strong resistance zone that VN-Index cannot overcome in 2024.
In the context of foreign investors continuing to sell net and domestic cash flow not being able to pull the market alone, according to Mr. Hinh, the market cannot increase immediately but needs to accumulate in this area for a while before there is strong enough supporting information and enough momentum to overcome the above strong resistance zone. Therefore, the market can move sideways and accumulate and cash flow will quickly circulate between groups of stocks to look for short-term opportunities.
Investors should maintain a moderate stock ratio and consider the investment portfolio structure, prioritizing groups with strong supporting information such as public investment, construction, construction materials, banking, textile and garment exports, and seafood.
Agriseco Research in its latest report recommends a number of investment opportunities in February 2025 focusing on leading bluechip stocks with good profit growth prospects in the first half of 2025, focusing on leading industries such as banking, securities and construction.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-10-142-kiem-dinh-khang-cu-manh-1280---1300-diem-d244942.html
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