The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says global temperatures are on track to exceed the threshold set in the Paris climate agreement within the next five years.
Previously, the eight hottest years on record occurred between 2015 and 2022, but temperatures are set to rise as climate change worsens.
“There is a 98% chance that at least one year in the next five years or the five-year period as a whole will be the warmest on record,” the WMO said.
A wildfire caused by heatwave in the village of Pefki on the Greek island of Evia in 2021. (Photo: Getty Images).
In 2015, nations agreed to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius above the baseline estimated between 1850 and 1900, and 1.5 degrees Celsius if feasible.
The average global temperature in 2022 is expected to be 1.15 degrees Celsius higher than the average of the years 1850 - 1900.
According to the WMO, there is a 66% chance that the annual global surface temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the years between 2023 and 2027.
While this does not mean the world will permanently exceed the Paris agreement target, the WMO is sounding the alarm that we will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius with increasing frequency.
WMO Director-General Petteri Taalas said the El Nino warming phenomenon is expected to develop in the coming months, and that this weather pattern will combine with human-caused climate change to push global temperatures to unprecedented levels.
“It will have far-reaching implications for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Mr. Taalas.
El Nino is a large-scale warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This weather phenomenon typically occurs every 2 to 7 years.
In early May, the WMO announced a 60% chance of El Nino developing by the end of July and 80% by the end of September.
Typically, El Nino increases global temperatures the year after it develops, and in this cycle that will be 2024.
Despite the cooling effects of La Nina for most of the past three years, the eight warmest years on record have all occurred since 2015, with 2016 being the hottest.
Heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases is at record highs. The three main greenhouse gases are CO2, methane, and NO2.
Scientists believe that near-surface temperatures have been rising since the 1960s. The likelihood of temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1990 average has been steadily increasing since 2015.
The UK's Met Office is WMO's leading centre for annual or 10-year climate forecasting.
“Global average temperatures are predicted to continue to rise, moving us further away from the climate we are used to,” said Leon Hermanson, chief scientist at the Met Office.
The WMO predicts that temperatures in 2023 could be higher than the 1991-2020 average in most regions of the world, except Alaska, South Africa, South Asia and parts of Australia.
(Source: Tin Tuc Newspaper)
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