How far can domestic gold prices 'fall'?

1 week increase 14 million VND/tael

In the past week (April 13-18), the buying and selling price of SJC gold bars increased from VND103 million/tael and VND106.5 million/tael to VND117 million/tael and VND120 million/tael, respectively. In just 7 days, the price of SJC gold bars increased by VND14 million/tael for buying and VND13.5 million/tael for selling.

Domestic gold prices have continuously increased sharply in the past week, increasing the gap with world gold prices.

Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong exclaimed: "A week of crazy fluctuations". Notably, the world gold price has only increased by less than 100 USD/ounce in the past week.

"The price difference between SJC gold and world gold prices at times reached 18 million VND/tael; 4-number-9 gold rings were 8 million VND/tael higher than world gold. Domestic gold prices are being manipulated, creating a mentality among people to buy gold at all costs," said Mr. Phuong.

Speaking with Thanh Nien, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan (Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics ) acknowledged that the above domestic gold price movements are unusual and the rate of increase is too fast.

"The increase in world gold prices combined with the scarcity of gold in the Vietnamese market has caused the price of SJC gold bars to increase sharply. The Fomo psychology (fear of missing out syndrome - PV) is back, similar to the gold rush in 2024," said Mr. Huan.

Mr. Phuong analyzed that the world gold price is at an all-time high. The domestic gold price is unusually higher than the world gold price. In addition, the gap between buying and selling prices is very large, about 3 - 5 million VND/tael, some shops even widen this gap to 10 million VND/tael.

From there, the expert advised: "Investors need to be very calm and should not buy gold at this time to avoid risks."

Gold price may drop to 110 million VND/tael?

On April 18, the Government Office issued a document conveying Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc's direction on domestic gold price developments.

Accordingly, the Deputy Prime Minister directed the State Bank to preside over and coordinate with agencies to closely monitor the situation and developments in the domestic and international financial, monetary, foreign exchange, and gold markets to stabilize the gold market.

Experts recommend that investors should not buy gold at the present time.

Strengthen inspection, examination and handling of violations, prevent profiteering, manipulation, price fixing, speculation... in the gold market, and communicate to stabilize social psychology.

In response to the above move, this morning, April 19, the buying and selling price of SJC gold bars has dropped sharply, by 3.5 million VND/tael and 2.5 million VND/tael, respectively; bringing the buying and selling price of gold to 113.5 million VND/tael and 117.5 million VND/tael. Mr. Phuong acknowledged that the State Bank and departments and branches will have solutions and actions to bring gold back to its real value.

According to Mr. Huan, when the State Bank takes specific actions such as conducting inspections, stabilizing the market..., the possibility of a wave of gold sell-offs and speculation will quickly decrease.

"The difference between domestic gold price and world gold price is about 4-5 million VND/tael, which is stable. Thus, the gold price falling from 120 million VND/tael to about 110 million VND/tael is possible.

In case the world gold price continues to increase, even if the State Bank intervenes in the gold market, the price will hardly decrease to 110 million VND/tael. However, the market will certainly adjust and cool down," said Mr. Huan.

According to Mr. Huan, the solutions to stabilize the gold market are only temporary and short-term. In the long term, it is necessary to speed up the revision of Decree 24 on the management of gold trading activities.

"It is necessary to build a credit gold market, and possibly prohibit people from trading physical gold. In the world, India, China, and the US at one point banned physical gold trading when the economy became gold-based and people tended to buy too much gold," said Mr. Huan.

In the medium and long term, many economic experts agree that during the term of US President Donald Trump, there are still many factors that are favorable for gold because there are too many unstable and unpredictable things./.

According to Thanh Nien Newspaper

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/gia-vang-trong-nuoc-co-the-roi-toi-dau-185250419090600319.htm

Source: https://baolongan.vn/gia-vang-trong-nuoc-co-the-roi-toi-dau-a193783.html