Gold prices fall, precious metals are sold off heavily, will prices definitely fall this week?

Gold price today, July 31, 2023, is flat, although the market showed some signs of recovery last weekend, but overall, it seems to be in a downtrend. Forecasting gold price next week, although retail investors still have high expectations, experts are still "divided" about the outlook.

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 7/31 AND EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 7/31

1. PNJ - Updated: 07/31/2023 00:30 - Website supply time - ▼ / ▲ Compared to yesterday.
Type	Buy	Sell
HCMC - PNJ	56,200	57,200
HCMC - SJC	66,600	67,200
Hanoi - PNJ	56,200	57,200
Hanoi - SJC	66,600	67,200
Da Nang - PNJ	56,200	57,200
Da Nang - SJC	66,600	67,200
Western Region - PNJ	56,200	57,200
Western Region - SJC	66,750	67,250
Jewelry gold price - PNJ rings (24K)	56,200	57,150
Jewelry Gold Price - 24K Jewelry	56,000	56,800
Jewelry Gold Price - 18K Jewelry	41,350	42,750
Jewelry Gold Price - 14K Jewelry	31,980	33,380
Jewelry Gold Price - 10K Jewelry	22,380	23,780

The world gold price closed the trading session last week (July 29) on the Kitco floor at 1,960.4 USD/ounce. The last time, the gold futures price for August trading increased by 10.30 USD to 1,956.00 USD/ounce.

After trading sideways for much of last week and taking in the momentum of a 25 basis point interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), gold sold off sharply following better-than-expected US economic growth and jobs data.

But even as the precious metal rebounded above $1,960 late last week, erasing half of its weekly losses, analysts remained divided as they looked to wait for more information on the direction of gold prices in the coming week, while retail investors were more optimistic about the outlook.

Gold price today July 31, 2023: Gold price in a downtrend, gold is sold off strongly, will it definitely decrease this week? (Source: Shutterstock)

Domestic gold prices remained stable in the last sessions of the week; in which, DOJI gold and SJC gold remained at over 67 million VND/tael in the selling direction. Thang Long Dragon Gold and jewelry gold at Bao Tin Minh Chau traded at over 55 - 56 million VND/tael.

At the current price, the world gold price converted to VND (including tax and processing fee) differs from the domestic SJC gold price by about 10 million VND/tael.

Summary of SJC gold prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of last weekend (July 30):

Saigon Jewelry Company listed the price of SJC gold at 66.55 - 67.25 million VND/tael.

Doji Group currently lists the price of SJC gold at: 66.55 - 67.25 million VND/tael.

PNJ system listed at: 66.6 - 67.2 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 66.65 - 67.23 million VND/tael; Rong Thang Long gold brand is traded at 56.21 - 57.06 million VND/tael; jewelry gold price is traded at 55.55 - 56.75 million VND/tael.

Gold Price Forecast

Kitco News ' latest weekly gold survey shows that experts are divided on the outlook, while retail investors are more bullish.

Of the 14 Wall Street analysts who participated in the survey, the odds of rising and staying the same were equal at 36%. Four analysts (28%) predicted gold prices would fall this week.

Of the 322 retail investors who participated in the online poll, 49% predicted the gold market would end the week in the green, 33% said prices would fall, and 18% were neutral.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey shows that retail investors still expect gold prices to rise in the week ending August 4. Meanwhile, market analysts are more cautious as they await definitive direction from economic indicators and technical trends.

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management , sees the yellow metal trending lower in the near term despite the positive price action at the close of last week. According to the expert, gold is trending sideways and although it has rebounded over the weekend, overall it appears to be in a downtrend within an established trading range.

"I expect gold prices to fall next week," said expert Colin Cieszynski.

On the other hand, Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, sees the recent Fed statements and persistent inflation as bullish factors for gold. According to Day, we are nearing the end of the Fed rate hike cycle, while inflation could reverse and rise again in a few months as higher oil prices hit the economy, affecting transportation and most goods in stores.

The gold market is looking forward to more market surveys and research in addition to official government statistics to better predict the Fed's monetary policy stance.

While analysts don't expect a major breakout in gold anytime soon, some experts believe the price trend will remain bullish as the Fed looks to cool the economy. Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, expects gold to test its current highs in response to the latest data. "The Fed will remain hawkish because they want to see inflation come down further," he predicted.

The Fed wants the labor market to cool as a condition for controlling inflation. In its latest report, the US Labor Department said the economy created 209,000 jobs in June, the first time it missed expectations since May 2022. Markets are looking forward to July employment figures due next weekend.

"The path of least resistance for gold is a disappointing July jobs report next week, which could open the way for a return to $1,985 per ounce. A strong break above this level could open the door to the psychological $2,000 level," said Lukman Otunuga, chief market analyst at FXTM.

Some analysts note that, along with benefiting from a change in monetary policy – which would weaken the USD – weaker economic data also raises concerns about a possible recession, supporting the appeal of gold.

Looking at it from another angle, Stuart O'Reilly, senior market analyst at Royal Mint, said, "Persistently high inflation or signs of a possible recession could prompt some investors to increase their allocation to gold as a traditional safe haven. Meanwhile, signs of economic recovery and falling inflation could have the opposite effect."

There's little to say in this trying time, according to Stuart O'Reilly, as it remains to be seen how gold will fare in the coming months as global economies work out whether recent interest rate hikes have gone too far, too fast.

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