Gold hits record, world stocks rise sharply

Gold prices on the international market increased sharply and continuously reached new peaks in the morning trading session on September 24 in the Asian market. Spot gold prices at times reached over 2,635 USD/ounce.

Domestically, the price of SJC gold bars, after many days at 80-82 million VND/tael, has broken through, increasing by 1.5 million VND to 83.5 million VND/tael (selling). The price of plain gold rings has also increased sharply and set a new record high: 81.3-81.6 million VND/tael.

With the spot price at 2,635 USD/ounce, the world gold price converted to the bank USD price is 79.5 million VND/tael, including tax and fees, about 4 million VND/tael lower than the price of SJC gold bars as of the end of the morning of September 24.

Thus, the domestic gold price, including SJC gold bars and gold rings, has fluctuated closer to the world price. However, transactions are said to be quite quiet. People in need still only register on the websites of 4 major banks: BIDV, Vietcombank, VietinBank, Agribank and Saigon Jewelry Company Limited (SJC), and if successful, they will transact with these units.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is still the only agency that directly supplies gold to the above 4 banks and SJC, from which these units have SJC gold bars to sell.

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The price of gold rings has skyrocketed to a new historical peak of 81.6 million VND/tael. Photo: HH

With gold rings and jewelry, transactions are not regulated and liquidity is based on customer demand as well as the supply capacity of businesses, such as Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ)...

SJC gold transactions are estimated to be not much because the State Bank's gold bar reserves are not large.

According to CEIC, as of October 2023, Vietnam's gold reserves were nearly 10.3 tons, equivalent to about 0.5-0.7% of total national reserves. At the end of April 2024, the State Bank of Vietnam auctioned off more than 1.8 tons of gold to the market through this channel.

World gold prices hit a peak in the context of the US entering a cycle of interest rate cuts that could last until 2026 and the world witnessing many instabilities, especially in China, plus escalating conflicts between Israel and Lebanon.

The global money flow is still quite complicated. Although the US lowered interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, interest rates are still quite high, 4.75% - 5.0%/year, so the USD has not fallen much. The DXY index is still at nearly 101 points.

The USD is not expected to move much to other markets, including Asia, especially in the context of interest rates in many places still being much lower than in the US. Lower interest rates also help reduce concerns about a US economic recession.

Meanwhile, the US economy is quite solid with many positive signals. This is a factor that helps US stocks continue to increase steadily and reach new peaks, although some reputable investors have started to withdraw money from US stocks due to a less positive outlook in the long term.

At the end of the session on September 23 (early morning of September 24, Vietnam time), the US broad-based stock index S&P 500 reached a new record high of 5,71.57 points, extending last week's increase after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates. The Dow Jones industrial average also rose slightly and set a new record: 42,124 points.

Not much money has been poured into Vietnamese stocks yet.

In Vietnam, the stock market was gloomy in the morning session of September 24, the VN-Index was flat. However, in the afternoon session, demand increased slightly while selling pressure was quite low, causing the number of stocks to increase in price overwhelmingly. The VN-Index closed the session up 8.51 points, up to nearly 1,277 points. However, liquidity was low, reaching only 18,700 billion VND on all three floors.

Cash flow into Vietnam's stock market is still quite weak even though foreign investors have returned to net buying in recent sessions after nearly a year of strong net selling, but the net buying volume is quite low.

In the session on September 24, foreign investors still strongly sold many stocks, such as VPBank (VPB), VIBBank (VIB), TPBank (TPB), SSI Securities (SSI), HDBank (HDB), Vincom Retail (VRE), while only net buying a few stocks such as MWG, STB...

Cash flow of domestic organizations and individuals is not high. Many large enterprises are still having to settle many bond debts borrowed several years ago, while others are saving money for year-end business activities.

The domestic real estate market is not very active in many big cities, but prices are still rising and hanging high, especially in Hanoi for the apartment and land segments. Some newly opened luxury projects have announced a large number of buyers, proving that the money of the "rich" is still pouring into real estate.

The gold market is quiet but has increased in price following the world. World gold is forecast to reach 2,700-3,000 USD/ounce next year, equivalent to a converted price of about 92 million VND/tael.

The gold market is quiet due to low supply, the sales volume of banks and SJC as well as licensed stores is still limited. Therefore, the amount of money poured into gold, if any, cannot be compared to other channels.

Gold price hits new peak, gold rings surpass 79 million VND: Is there a risk of a strong pullback? World gold prices skyrocketed, surpassing the old peak at the end of August, then continuously setting new high records, at times reaching over 2,570 USD/ounce. Is the strong increase, contrary to previous expectations of a decrease, a potential correction?