Gold prices continue to increase "hotly", should the State Bank step in to rein in?

According to economic expert Nguyen Tri Hieu, in the context of domestic gold prices continuously increasing "hotly", measures from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to help stabilize the market are extremely necessary.

In fact, the Government has recently asked the State Bank of Vietnam to take action and take specific measures to stabilize the gold market. "Currently, some administrative measures can help cool down gold prices," said Mr. Hieu.

However, Mr. Hieu also emphasized that administrative measures are only temporary and cannot solve the root cause. The current problem of the gold market comes from the fact that supply and demand do not meet, while the demand for gold is increasing but the supply is very limited.

Mr. Hieu analyzed that gold belongs to the market economy, it is affected by supply and demand so it is very uncertain, does not follow any rules but completely depends on market developments.

"Therefore, to be able to intervene in gold prices, we need to have measures to balance supply and demand, not to regulate the market. Recently, the Government has also asked the State Bank to control the market, especially speculation," Mr. Hieu stated his opinion.

In addition, expert Nguyen Tri Hieu also said that domestic gold prices are strongly affected by world gold prices. In recent days, world gold prices have also continuously increased sharply, making domestic gold prices increase, which is understandable.

"If in the near future, the world situation does not stabilize again, gold prices will continue to increase sharply," Mr. Hieu commented.

However, expert Nguyen Tri Hieu also said that gold prices can decrease at any time and cannot go up forever.

"When the price increases too much, many people with gold will rush to sell to take profit. At that time, the supply will increase and the price of gold will decrease," Mr. Hieu analyzed.

Therefore, Mr. Hieu noted that people need to closely monitor the developments of the gold market to be able to decide whether to buy or sell, avoiding financial risks when investing in gold.

"With the gold market, there is no peak, no one knows its peak. Today this level is very high but tomorrow it can increase again. The demand for gold is limitless, so the price of gold will probably continue to increase," said Mr. Hieu.

Sharing the same view, economist Ngo Tri Long also said that the State Bank needs to take measures to bring domestic gold prices closer to world gold prices. We cannot let the world gold price increase, and we also increase it more strongly, causing the gap to widen further, which will create very bad consequences.

"It is necessary to have administrative measures to stabilize the market," Mr. Long commented.

According to economic expert Ngo Tri Long, the Government has also given instructions, so people need to monitor how the State Bank's stabilization moves will take place without panicking.

Previously, the State Bank pointed out 3 reasons for the continuous increase in international gold prices:

Firstly, political instability, military conflicts, and strategic competition are increasing globally, such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine military conflict, followed by economic and political sanctions and retaliation between Russia and the US and its allies; and military conflicts between Israel and Muslim countries and forces in the Middle East.

Second, many central banks and investment funds are increasing their gold purchases to supplement foreign exchange reserves, which is also an important reason for the increase in gold prices.

Third, US President Donald Trump's announcement of high reciprocal tariffs with countries around the world has negatively impacted investor sentiment and global economic growth, causing investors' cash flow to tend to flow into gold...

The State Bank of Vietnam believes that the high gold price is a common trend in both the international and domestic markets, however, the difference between the average domestic gold buying and selling price and the world price has decreased significantly compared to 2024 (at times the difference reached its highest level in 2024 of about 18 million VND/tael, equivalent to 25%).

"This development shows that with recent gold market management measures, the difference between domestic SJC gold bar prices and converted world gold prices is controlled within a suitable range," the State Bank of Vietnam said.

What to do to improve gold supply?

According to economic experts, people should first avoid rushing to buy gold, to cool down the gold price and reduce scarcity.

However, the most important and long-term solution, according to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, is that the management agency should soon consider removing the monopoly on gold imports. If the supply increases to meet market demand, the domestic gold price may cool down, instead of increasing continuously and moving away from the world.

In addition, it is necessary to consider establishing an official gold exchange. The gold exchange will help connect domestic and international gold prices, creating conditions for gold to be traded transparently and legally.

The establishment of a gold trading floor is also expected to support tighter management, reduce gold transactions through the "black market" and increase market transparency.

Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of the Faculty of Finance and Banking at Nguyen Trai University, also expressed his opinion that Vietnam needs a flexible, transparent and synchronous gold management strategy to ensure macroeconomic stability, limit speculation and avoid the risk of "goldenizing" the economy in an increasingly unpredictable world.

Mr. Huy analyzed that the large price difference between domestic and international gold makes people feel that gold is a "safe asset storage" channel, leading to the trend of "hoarding gold", limiting capital flow.

"However, the "goldenization" has not spread widely because the State Bank still controls gold bars, the Vietnamese dong remains stable, and the stock and real estate channels still attract cash flow. But if the gap continues to widen, people will increasingly rush to buy and store gold, which will negatively affect the financial market and reduce the effectiveness of monetary management," said Mr. Huy.

Mr. Huy also said that, in the face of uncertain global developments, people are worried about the devaluation of the dong or systemic risks, leading to a reduction in savings, an increase in physical gold hoarding and an increased defensive mentality. "The reason is that we lack some professional risk prevention tools," Mr. Huy said.

World gold price falls freely from historical peak

On the morning of April 23, the world gold price decreased by 108 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning, down to 3,324 USD/ounce.

Gold prices fell sharply on optimism about stocks and the US dollar recovered after comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that US-China trade tensions would cool down.

Despite the sharp decline in gold prices, JPMorgan remains optimistic that the rally will continue, forecasting gold prices to surpass $4,000 an ounce amid rising recession risks, rising US tariffs and persistent US-China trade tensions.

(According to VTC News)

Source: https://baoyenbai.com.vn/12/349237/Gia-vang-lien-tuc-tang-nong-Ngan-hang-Nha-nuoc-nen-vao-cuoc-ghim-cuong.aspx