Gold futures rose to $3,114 an ounce, the 17th time this year that gold has set a new record. The rally was driven largely by President Donald Trump’s announcement of auto tariffs, which raised concerns about a trade war and put downward pressure on the US dollar, further boosting gold prices.
In the context of soaring gold prices, many major banks on Wall Street have continuously raised their gold price forecasts. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) recently increased their gold price forecast from $3,000 to $3,500 in the next 18 months.
The main reason given is that investors are expected to increase their gold purchases by about 10%, especially from China, central banks around the world, along with ETFs that hold physical gold.
Uncertainty over President Trump's trade policy could see the US dollar continue to depreciate, which will continue to support gold prices in the short term, BofA analysts said.
They also stressed that the Trump administration's economic policies have prompted investors to increase their capital allocation to gold as a safe haven from market volatility.
Not only Bank of America, Macquarie Group also made a similar prediction when it said that gold price could reach 3,500 USD in the third quarter of this year.
JPMorgan analysts were even more daring when they questioned whether gold prices could hit $4,000 in the near future.
JPMorgan explained that it took just 210 days for gold to rise from $2,500 to $3,000, significantly faster than previous $500 increases (which averaged around 1,700 days).
With the current rapid growth rate and the increasing attractiveness of gold in the eyes of investors, this bank believes that the possibility of gold reaching the $4,000 mark may not be far away.
Another key reason cited by JPMorgan is the massive structural shift in gold demand since Russia’s offshore assets were frozen due to the war in Ukraine. Since then, global central banks have stepped up their purchases of gold, leading to unprecedented demand for the metal. This has made gold a top pick for JPMorgan for the third consecutive year.
Sharing the same view, Goldman Sachs recently raised its gold price forecast to $3,300 by the end of this year, up from its previous forecast of $3,100 in late February.
Central banks have been buying more than 1,000 tonnes of gold per year for three consecutive years, and this trend is likely to continue into 2025, said Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven.
They see the fivefold increase in gold purchases by central banks, especially in emerging markets, since 2022 as a major shift in foreign exchange reserve management strategies, and this is unlikely to reverse in the near future.
In addition, Goldman Sachs noted that demand for gold-backed ETFs has also increased more than expected, especially as investors look for assets to protect against economic uncertainty.
If this demand continues to accelerate and reach levels as high as during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, gold prices could even reach $3,680 by the end of this year.
Source: https://baoquangnam.vn/gia-vang-lien-tuc-pha-ky-luc-pho-wall-nang-du-bao-len-toi-4-000-usd-ounce-3151686.html
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