The forecast for domestic coffee prices on May 25, 2024, is that prices will continue to rise, heading towards 120,000 VND/kg.
The sharp increase in domestic coffee prices and the huge volume of transactions indicate that concerns about supply shortages, along with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, continue to weigh on buyers.
The coffee market is projected to continue rising in the near future, and Robusta coffee prices are expected to soon return to $4,000 per ton. Experts predict that by 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports could reach $5 billion thanks to several factors, including high prices.
The world 's growing demand for certain green coffee products for instant coffee is also driving domestic demand.
In addition, according to market forecasts, world coffee prices on May 25, 2024, on online trading platforms showed mixed increases and decreases.
Coffee prices have risen in recent days, extending a sharp increase and reaching a three-week high. The surge this week is driven by concerns that excessive drought in Brazil will damage coffee crops and limit global production.
According to Somar Meteorologia, this week the Minas Gerais region of Brazil received no rainfall or zero percent of its historical average for the past week, marking the fourth consecutive week without rain. Minas Gerais accounts for approximately 30% of Brazil's arabica coffee production.
Domestic coffee prices today, May 24, 2024, increased by 7,000 to 7,200 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 117,200 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 117,500 VND/kg.
Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai and Kon Tum provinces is 117,000 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 117,500 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh green coffee beans) is 116,000 VND/kg.
Today's coffee prices in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 117,000 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at the same rate of 117,100 VND/kg.
Following the upward trend of domestic coffee prices, online coffee prices today on all three exchanges saw sharp increases in London and New York, while prices on the Brazilian exchange showed mixed movements.
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| London Robusta coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com) |
According to the latest update on world coffee prices at 8:10 PM on May 24, 2024 (Vietnam time) on the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices continued to rise across all contract periods, fluctuating between 3564 and 3843 USD/ton.
Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contracts for July 2024 delivery on the London exchange was $3843/ton, up $24/ton from the beginning of the trading session. The September 2024 contract was $3761/ton, up $22; the November 2024 contract was $3668/ton, up $24; and the January 2025 contract was $3564/ton, up $3564.
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| New York Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com) |
Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange today, at 8:10 PM on May 24, 2024, continued to fall across all maturities, fluctuating between 211.10 and 214.00 cents/lb.
Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was 214.00 cents/lb, down 1.65 cents/lb from the start of the session. The September 2024 contract was 213.20 cents/lb, down 1.16 cents/lb; the December 2024 contract was 211.85 cents/lb, down 1.75 cents/lb; and the March 2025 contract was 211.10 cents/lb, down 1.75 cents/lb.
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| Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com) |
Brazilian Arabica coffee prices at 8:10 PM on May 24, 2024, showed a slight decrease across all trading contracts compared to the beginning of the session, fluctuating between $257.40 and $269.80 per ton.
Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was $269.80/ton, down $6.35. The September 2024 delivery contract was $261.00/ton, down $1.45 from the start of trading; the December 2024 delivery contract was $258.90/ton, down $0.30; and the March 2025 delivery contract was $257.40/ton, down $5.30.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.
For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 19:00 to 02:35 (the next day), Vietnam time.
The current price increase is mainly due to renewed investor concerns about the supply outlook from Brazil and Vietnam. Hedge funds have increased their net long positions, anticipating continued scarcity of Robusta coffee from Vietnam in the near future. Vietnam is currently the world's largest exporter of Robusta coffee.
Marex Group Plc (UK) currently forecasts a global Robusta coffee market deficit of up to 2.7 million bags (60 kg/bag) in 2024-2025, mainly due to a decline in production in Vietnam.
Furthermore, some experts point out that the European Union's upcoming implementation of anti-deforestation regulations on goods imported into its market, including coffee, is also a factor driving up coffee prices, as a significant portion of the world's coffee growing area originates from deforestation.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-2552024-gia-ca-phe-trong-nuoc-tang-soc-322172.html
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