Global coffee prices have not cooled down, experts predict that Brazilian coffee production will increase continuously until 2025

According to Reuters, experts predict that coffee production in Brazil will increase continuously from now until 2025, with the main product being Robusta coffee production. For a country with a history of producing high-end and popular Arabica coffee, this is unprecedented.

Farmers in Brazil sort coffee after harvest. Photo credit: Victor Moriyama, Bloomberg

Experts explain that the main reason is that the biennial Arabica coffee production cycle has been disrupted by climate change. Specifically, in 2020 and then 2021, Arabica coffee fields in Brazil experienced prolonged droughts followed by severe frosts.

Since then, the country has produced more crops each year. This improvement is due to the adoption of a number of farming techniques to cope with extreme weather caused by climate change, such as pruning and expanding irrigation systems, especially for Robusta coffee.

Furthermore, according to Celso Vegro, a coffee researcher at the Brazilian Institute for Industrial Economics (IEA), the increase in coffee production is also due to the fact that Robusta coffee growing areas, which are located in the north, have not experienced frost this year. On the other hand, according to Al Jazeera, this type of coffee is also considered to be more adaptable to climate change and has better disease resistance than Arabica.

According to data from Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab), the average yield of Robusta coffee fields in the country has increased by about 50% in 10 years, reaching more than 2,652 kg/ha. Conab also estimates that the 2024 crop in Brazil will reach 58 million bags (each bag is equivalent to 60 kg), up 5% compared to last year.

“We have no doubt that next year’s crop will be bigger, extending the four-year growth streak,” Marcio Ferreira, president of the Cecafe export group, told Reuters, predicting the future growth of Brazilian coffee. According to data from the International Coffee Organization (IOC), the growth miracle has only happened once in Brazil’s history, from 1989 to 1992.

The expansion of Brazilian coffee production comes as Vietnam, a major producer of Robusta, faces a forecast of severe weather this year, which has pushed global coffee prices to a 16-year high.

Tận dụng cơ hội từ biến đổi khí hậu, Brazil nâng sản lượng cà phê lên mức kỷ lục

Domestic coffee market price list, recorded at 5:00 p.m. on March 22, 2024

World and domestic coffee prices recorded at 5:00 p.m. on March 22, 2024

Specifically, at the end of the trading session on March 21, 2024, the price of Robusta coffee in London for May 2024 delivery increased by 70 USD/ton, at 3,385 USD/ton, and for July 2024 delivery increased by 67 USD/ton, at 3,288 USD/ton. Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee for May 2024 delivery increased by 3.3 cents/lb, at 185.7 cents/lb, and for July 2024 delivery increased by 3.25 cents/lb, at 184.65 cents/lb.

In the domestic coffee market, on March 22, 2024, coffee prices also increased compared to the same time yesterday, with an average price of 95,100 VND/kg. In Di Linh, Lam Ha, Bao Loc districts (Lam Dong), today's coffee price was purchased at 94,600 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak, the coffee price today is 95,000 VND/kg. Similarly, in Gia Lai province, the coffee purchase price today is 95,000 VND/kg. In Dak Nong province, the coffee price today is 95,200 VND/kg.

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