Global coffee prices returned to a negative trend following monthly export data reports from the world’s leading coffee producing and exporting countries. In addition, funds and speculators continued to make technical adjustments on both exchanges, pushing coffee prices into a downward trend. Meanwhile, selling pressure for the new crop continued to increase as Brazilian farmers entered the final stages of the harvest and were supported by the weakening Real exchange rate.
The Brazilian Coffee Bean Export Report from the Association of Exporters (Cécafe) shows that in July, the country reached a total of 2.7 million bags, an increase of 22% over the same period, of which Conilon robusta coffee exports reached 505,153 bags, an increase of more than three times.
Coffee exports, mainly robusta coffee, reached 1.81 million bags in July, down 7.6% year-on-year but up 36.09% compared to the initial estimate of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, according to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam.
Colombia, the world’s leading producer and exporter of high-quality washed arabica coffee, reported July exports of 846,000 bags, down 17% from the same month last year. Colombia exported a total of 10.3 million bags over the past 12 months, slightly lower than initially expected due to unfavorable production due to excessive rains, according to the National Coffee Federation (FNC).
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| Domestic coffee prices today, August 11, continued to decrease by 100-200 VND/kg in key purchasing localities. (Source: Amazon.com) |
At the end of the trading session on August 10, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to decrease slightly. The price of robusta coffee futures for September 2023 delivery decreased by 13 USD, trading at 2,666 USD/ton. The price of November delivery decreased by 9 USD, trading at 2,534 USD/ton. Trading volume increased sharply in the November 2023 delivery period.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased slightly, with the September 2023 delivery term down 0.85 cents, trading at 159.9 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2023 delivery term down 0.55 cents, trading at 159.65 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices today, August 11, continued to decrease by 100-200 VND/kg in key purchasing localities.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
On August 10, the US Department of Labor released data showing that consumer price inflation in the country increased again in July, after about a year of cooling, putting pressure on policy makers when considering the next interest rate hikes.
The consumer price index (CPI) in July increased 3.2% compared to the same period last year, after increasing 3% in June. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI in July increased 4.7% compared to the same period last year.
Since early 2022, the US Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) has been raising interest rates to curb inflation. Last month's hike brought US interest rates to their highest level since 2001.
As the world's largest economy shows signs of cooling, Fed officials said they will depend on specific data when considering further interest rate decisions, ensuring a balance between reducing inflation and avoiding pushing the economy into recession.
However, the current pace of price increases supports the view that monetary policy should be maintained to cool inflation. Consumer price inflation hit a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and has cooled gradually since then.
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