Will coffee prices surpass their previous peak?

The forecast for coffee prices in the domestic market on May 30, 2024, is that they will continue to rise. The sharp increase in coffee prices recently has contributed to boosting sales in the spot market, according to the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade .

According to assessments by coffee exporting businesses, although coffee prices have risen, farmers have run out of coffee, and all remaining stock from this year is currently stored in the warehouses of a few large companies. Therefore, growers can only hope that the current favorable prices will be maintained until the harvest in October.

The US dollar is on a downward trend, coupled with continued strain on shipping costs, which is driving up coffee prices. The dollar officially marked its first monthly decline this year, as investors focused on inflation data from the US, Europe, and Japan to guide global interest rate prospects. Unpredictable US economic data has dampened policymakers' confidence in the future interest rate outlook.

In addition, according to market forecasts, world coffee prices on May 30, 2024, on online trading platforms are expected to remain at high levels.

According to experts, the forecast for global coffee prices on online exchanges is on an upward trend due to renewed investor concerns about the supply outlook from Brazil and Vietnam.

Concerns have been raised about excessive drought conditions in Brazil and Vietnam in recent times, which could damage coffee crops and limit global production. Brazil's Somar Meteorologia also reported that the Minas Gerais region received 5.3 mm of rainfall last week, or 69% of the historical average for the same period.

In addition, domestic coffee prices today, May 29, 2024, continue to rise, increasing by approximately 500 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 116,900 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 117,200 VND/kg.

Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai and Kon Tum provinces is 116,700 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 117,200 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is 115,700 VND/kg.

Today's coffee prices in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 116,600 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at the same rate of 116,700 VND/kg.

Following the upward trend of domestic coffee prices, online coffee prices today on the three exchanges in London, New York, and Brazil remain at high levels.

London Robusta coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

According to the latest update on world coffee prices at 8:40 PM on May 29, 2024 (Vietnam time) on the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices fluctuated across different contract periods, but remained at record highs, exceeding 4000 USD/ton, ranging from 3780 to 4145 USD/ton.

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contracts for July 2024 delivery on the London exchange was $4145/ton, up $25/ton compared to the beginning of the trading session. The September 2024 contract was $4027/ton, up $2; the November 2024 contract was $3894/ton, down $21; and the January 2025 contract was $3780/ton, down $30 compared to the beginning of the session.

New York Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York exchange today, at 8:40 PM on May 29, 2024, showed insignificant fluctuations compared to the previous session, ranging from 231.00 to 227.15 cents/lb.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was 231.00 cents/lb, up 0.05 cents/lb from the start of the session. The September 2024 contract was 229.85 cents/lb, up 0.05 cents/lb; the December 2024 contract was 228.45 cents/lb; and the March 2025 contract was 227.15 cents/lb, down 0.30 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices at 8:20 PM on May 28, 2024, showed a significant increase across several trading periods, ranging from $276.70 to $290.05 per ton.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was $290.05/ton, up $16.80. The September 2024 delivery contract was $279.00/ton, down $3.05 from the start of trading; the December 2024 delivery contract was $276.25/ton, down $3.60; and the March 2025 delivery contract was $276.70/ton, up $16.15.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 19:00 to 02:35 (the next day), Vietnam time.

The latest COT report on the positions of traders in the New York Arabica coffee market indicates that Fund Management Companies slightly increased their net long positions by 0.05% in the trading week ending May 21, 2024, showing this component holding new long positions at 52,593 lots. Index traders also increased their net long positions by 0.63% to register new net long positions of 48,147 lots.

The report also noted that non-commercial speculators increased their net long positions by 3.43% during the same period. Thus, after two weeks of liquidating positions, the main market speculators returned to buying, causing the market to regain its high price level.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-3052024-gia-ca-phe-tang-vuot-dinh-323114.html