Robusta coffee prices set record high

Robusta coffee prices set a record high in history when they increased by 2.9% to 5,817 USD/ton; Arabica coffee prices also increased by 4.44% to 9,519 USD/ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the world raw material market fluctuated in yesterday's trading session. In particular, in the industrial raw material market, the prices of two coffee products simultaneously increased sharply due to concerns about supply. Meanwhile, in the opposite direction, the prices of two crude oil products were under pressure after the EIA report. Closing, the MXV-Index decreased by 0.1% to 2,342 points, ending a streak of 4 consecutive increasing sessions.

Giá cà phê Robusta thiết lập mức cao kỷ lục

MXV-Index

Coffee returns to the "race" of price increases

Strong buying power in the industrial raw material market in yesterday's trading session. Coffee continued to be the focus when prices increased after only one session of downward adjustment. In particular, Robusta coffee prices set an unprecedented record high in history when increasing by 2.9% to 5,817 USD/ton; Arabica coffee prices also skyrocketed by 4.44% to 9,519 USD/ton.

Industrial raw material price list

According to the latest figures from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe), the country exported only 3.98 million bags of green coffee in January, down 1.6% from the same month last year. This is the second consecutive month of decline in exports from the world's largest supplier of Arabica beans.

In addition, analysts say soaring costs for trading Arabica coffee on the ICE exchange have exacerbated the rally, which has pushed raw, unroasted coffee beans to record levels for 14 consecutive sessions over the past three weeks.

In addition, the latest report from Somar Meteorologia showed that rainfall in Minas Gerais - Brazil's largest Arabica coffee growing region - reached only 53.9 mm last week, 15% below the historical average. This information further exacerbated concerns about crop prospects in the world's leading Arabica coffee producing country, thereby supporting coffee prices yesterday.

Furthermore, according to the latest data, Robusta coffee inventories fell to a five-week low of just 4,348 lots in yesterday's trading session, after hitting a four-month high of 4,603 lots on January 31.

A similar trend was seen with Arabica coffee, which fell from a two-and-a-half-year high of 993,562 bags on January 6 to 841,795 bags, its lowest in more than three months, according to ICE.

The simultaneous decline in export supply and inventories signals a serious shortage in the short term. This is all the more worrying after Hedgepoint Global Markets just lowered its forecast for Brazil's coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year to 64.1 million bags. Notably, Arabica production - accounting for 70% of total production - is forecast to reach only 41.1 million bags, down 4.9% compared to the previous crop year.

Oil prices break three-session winning streak

According to MXV, the energy market was filled with red in the trading session on February 12. In particular, in the world crude oil market, the prices of two commodities plunged more than 2% in the news of phone calls between the three presidents of the US, Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, data on high US oil inventories also put pressure on oil prices.

At the end of the session, Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.82 USD, equivalent to 2.36%, to 75.18 USD/barrel. WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.95 USD, equivalent to 2.66%, to 71.37 USD/barrel, ending a series of three consecutive increasing sessions.

Energy price list

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee, saying the economy is in good shape and the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates further.

Separately, consumer price data released by the US Labor Department showed that US inflation rose surprisingly strongly in January, raising concerns that the economy is overheating and that upcoming tariffs could dampen hopes for a rate cut. Higher interest rates could slow economic activity and reduce oil demand.

According to a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the country's crude oil reserves last week increased much higher than the market expected. In addition, EIA also adjusted the forecast for US crude oil production to 13.59 million barrels/day in 2025, up slightly from the previous forecast of 13.55 million barrels/day, while maintaining the same forecast for consumption.

Separately, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report that global oil demand will increase by 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 1.43 million bpd in 2026. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.

Prices of some other goods