World coffee prices fluctuated, with robusta rising sharply and arabica continuing to fall slightly. Trading volume increased sharply on both exchanges. Expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would not change interest rates in the upcoming meeting, combined with supply and demand information, prompted investors to return to increase purchases.
Robusta coffee prices regained the previous session's gains, while Arabica was hindered by strong selling pressure from Brazilian supplies due to the high exchange rate of the Real. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cécafé) has just reported that coffee exports in August reached 3.673 million bags of all kinds of coffee, up 29.4% over the same period last year, of which Arabica coffee exports increased by 11.2% with 2.65 million bags and Conilon Robusta coffee increased by 443% with 699 thousand bags.
However, coffee exports in the first 8 months of 2023 from Vietnam decreased by 5.37% compared to the same period last year, even though the cumulative exports in the first 11 months of the current coffee crop year 2022/2023 increased by 3.87% compared to the same period last year, contributing to affirming that the supply from the leading producer has been exhausted, while Vietnam will not have new crop goods until the end of December.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, September 14, increased by 600-800 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Lecafebmt) |
At the end of the trading session on September 13, coffee prices increased and decreased in different directions on international exchanges. Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for November 2023 delivery increased sharply by 49 USD, trading at 2,479 USD/ton. January 2024 delivery increased by 26 USD, trading at 2,361 USD/ton. Trading volume increased sharply.
The price of Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for December 2023 delivery continued to decrease slightly by 0.05 cents, trading at 151.95 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2024 delivery was flat, trading at 153.15 cents/lb. Trading volume increased sharply.
Domestic coffee prices today, September 14, increased by 600-800 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
The US CPI report for August reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates without raising them further.
The latest report released by the US Department of Labor on September 13 showed that consumer prices in the country in August 2023 increased the most in more than a year due to high gasoline prices, but the modest increase in core inflation may encourage the Fed to keep interest rates at current levels.
Accordingly, the US consumer price index (CPI) last month increased by 0.6% compared to July, marking the largest increase since June 2022 and in line with market forecasts.
Financial markets largely expect the Fed to keep its policy rate unchanged at next week's meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate by 525 basis points to the current range of 5.25%-5.50%. However, the market believes the Fed is still likely to raise rates in November as services inflation (excluding housing) remains high.
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