Coffee prices fell at the end of the week, hedge funds made technical adjustments, Brazilian goods are pouring into the market

Overall, the market is trending negatively after monthly export data reports from the world's leading coffee producing and exporting countries. These export data reports have eased concerns about short- and medium-term supply shortages. Promoting technical corrections by funds and speculation in the futures market.

World coffee prices entered a negative trend in the last sessions of the week. At the end of this week's session, coffee prices on both exchanges continued to decrease, with only robusta for September 2023 delivery increasing slightly. Compared to the coffee prices traded in the last session, world coffee prices turned to decrease, with a decrease of 5 - 7 USD/ton for robusta coffee and a decrease of about 4 - 5 Cents/lb for arabica coffee.

Arabica coffee prices recorded a decrease of more than 1% compared to the reference level, this is also the fourth consecutive decrease of this commodity this week. The reason is believed to be the gradual increase in coffee exports in Brazil, thereby continuing to put pressure on world price movements.

As of August 10, Brazil shipped 1,062,116 tons of coffee in the first 10 days of August 2023, up from 946,453 tons in the same period last month. Notably, exports of Arabica coffee beans also increased compared to the first 10 days of July 2023, when 752,903 tons were shipped abroad, up 9% from the previous level of 687,910 tons, according to data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe).

Giá cà phê hôm nay 14/2/2023: fgd. (Nguồn: iStock)

Domestic coffee prices continued to decrease by 200 - 300 VND/kg in key purchasing localities in this weekend's trading session (August 12). (Source: iStock)

Domestic coffee prices generally increased last week amid shortages. Compared to the beginning of the week, provinces and cities recorded a total increase of 300 - 500 VND/kg. At the end of the week (August 12), the lowest price was recorded in Lam Dong at 66,600 VND/kg, the highest in Dak Nong at 67,500 VND/kg.

At the end of the weekend trading session on the international futures exchange (August 11), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased and decreased in different directions. The price of robusta coffee futures for delivery in September 2023 increased by 6 USD, trading at 2,672 USD/ton. The price of futures for delivery in November decreased by 17 USD, trading at 2,517 USD/ton. Trading volume increased above average.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to fall, with the September 2023 delivery contract down 2.10 cents, trading at 157.8 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2023 delivery contract fell 1.95 cents, trading at 157.7 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices continued to decrease by 200 - 300 VND/kg in key purchasing localities in this weekend's trading session (August 12).

Average price	Change
USD/VND exchange rate	23,570	- 0
DAK LAK	67,300	- 200
LAM DONG	66,600	- 300
GIA LAI	66,700	- 300
DAK NONG	67,500	- 200

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

World coffee prices are generally expected to increase in the first half of 2023. This trend is concentrated in robusta coffee, which broke the 12-year peak.

Specifically, the price of robusta futures for September 2023 increased continuously from a low of 1,748 USD/ton at the beginning of the year to 2,783 USD/ton on June 19, equivalent to an increase of more than 59%. As of August 4, the price of robusta was still anchored at 2,600 USD/ton.

Meanwhile, the price of Arabica coffee for the same period increased from a low of 145.75 cents/lb on January 11, increased by 37% to 199.95 cents/lb on April 18, then reversed and adjusted. As of August 4, the price of Arabica stopped at 161.35 cents/lb.

Explaining the rise in coffee prices, world commodity analysts have given many reasons, including lower supply in Vietnam and unfavorable weather conditions affecting production in Indonesia. These are the two countries with the world's largest and third largest robusta supplies. On the other hand, consumers tend to switch to cheaper robusta.

Additionally, concerns about El Niño in major growing regions around the world could affect yields.

The high price of robusta contributed to the export turnover of Vietnamese coffee in the first 6 months of this year reaching 2.4 billion USD, up 4% compared to the same period last year. The average export price reached 2,391 USD/ton, up 7%. The increase in export turnover was mainly due to the price increase, because the export volume was equivalent to the same period at more than 1 million tons.

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