Coffee prices could rise further, notable changes in the consumption market in 2025?

The average coffee price in 2024 is expected to jump 38.8% from the average in 2023, due to lower production amid adverse weather conditions. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that the average global coffee price could rise even higher in 2025 if production declines significantly in major coffee-growing regions around the world.

Coffee price today 3/21/2025

World coffee prices fluctuated, robusta coffee decreased by 30 USD/ton, while arabica continued to increase slightly by 1 US cent.

Domestic coffee prices today, March 21, are trading in the range of 132,500 - 134,000 VND/kg. Coffee prices in the world's leading robusta producing country increased this week as some traders with strong financial potential chose to hold their goods and not sell them to push up prices. Currently, many farmers are still selling in moderation instead of selling massively right after the harvest like before.

Robusta coffee prices eased after rising earlier in the session on increased supplies. Robusta coffee inventories tracked by ICE rose to a 1-1/2-week high of 4,336 lots on March 19.

Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices are being affected by weather factors. Information about low rainfall in Brazil supported coffee in New York. Cooxupe, Brazil's largest arabica coffee cooperative, said high temperatures and below-average rainfall last month in Brazil could negatively affect coffee yields not only in 2025 but also in 2026.

However, Rabobank said the crop outlook in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is improving. After a dry February, rains returned in mid-March, providing some relief. The bank added that the impact of February’s dry weather on the crop has so far been limited.

The mixed news means the market will continue to closely monitor weather conditions in the coming months, which are key to the eventual development of the arabica crop. Prices were also supported by a drop in ICE-monitored arabica inventories to a one-month low of 782,489 bags on March 20.

In terms of the overall market, supply will continue to be tight until Indonesia enters its harvest season. Companies are having difficulty purchasing, because last year they could import from Brazil to make up for the shortage, but this year the supply from Brazil is also tight. Meanwhile, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that Vietnamese farmers are now regulating the market, not only domestically but also internationally. Currently, Vietnamese coffee is "alone in the market" in the world because Brazil is also out of stock. Therefore, coffee prices remain high. If there is a big change, it will be after May because that is when Brazil enters its harvest season.

Domestic coffee prices today, March 21, dropped sharply by 1,000 - 1,200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Lecafebmt)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on March 20, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 decreased by 30 USD, trading at 5,497 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 decreased by 27 USD, trading at 5,482 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the May 2025 delivery futures up 1.10 cents, trading at 392.15 cents/lb. The July 2025 delivery futures increased 1.25 cents, trading at 385.35 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.

Domestic coffee prices today, March 21, dropped sharply by 1,000 - 1,200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,350	+ 10
DAK LAK	134,000	- 1,000
LAM DONG	132,500	- 1,200
GIA LAI	133,800	- 1,000
DAK NONG	134,000	- 1,000

(Source: giacaphe.com)

The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) assessed that Vietnam's coffee exports in February 2025 grew positively thanks to abundant domestic supply when Vietnam entered the harvest season. Notably, coffee export prices in the first two months of the year increased sharply by 75.9% over the same period. Specifically, the average export price of coffee in our country increased to 5,678 USD/ton, up 4.4% compared to January 2025 and up 70.8% compared to February 2024. Thus, the average export price of this item in the first two months of 2025 reached 5,561 USD/ton, up 75.9% over the same period in 2024.

According to industry insiders, the current coffee price fever is influenced by many factors, but mainly due to lower supply than demand. Global coffee prices have increased sharply in 2024 due to limited supply and high demand. Although coffee prices are forecast to be unlikely to maintain the impressive growth momentum as in 2024, the general price level will still remain high compared to previous years, fluctuating between 110,000 - 120,000 VND/kg.

Forecasts for 2025 show that the global coffee consumption market will continue to grow. According to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, global coffee consumption in the 2024-2025 crop year is expected to increase by 5.1 million bags, reaching a total of 168.1 million bags. Major consumption markets include Europe, the US, and Asia.

The European Union (EU) continues to be the world’s largest coffee consuming region, with stable demand and a slight upward trend due to its deep coffee culture and diversity in drinking methods. The US is the second largest coffee consuming market, expected to maintain steady consumption growth, especially with the popularity of specialty coffees and the trend of cold brew coffee.

In Asia, countries in this region, especially China and South Korea, are witnessing a rapid increase in coffee consumption. Changing consumer habits and the growth of international coffee chains contribute to this trend.

The main export markets of the world's No. 1 robusta exporter - Vietnam during this period included Germany, the US, Japan and Russia, with significant growth in export volume compared to the same period last year. Specifically, in terms of market structure, in February 2025, Vietnam's coffee exports to many major consumer markets such as Germany, the US, Japan, Russia, etc. all increased sharply in volume compared to February 2024. However, coffee exports to some markets decreased such as: Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, etc.

Overall, the global coffee consumption market is expected to continue growing in 2025, with significant contributions from traditional markets such as Europe and the United States, along with a consumption boom in Asian countries. Vietnam, as one of the leading coffee exporters, is taking advantage of this opportunity to increase its export value, although the volume may decrease slightly due to supply factors.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2132025-gia-ca-phe-co-the-tang-cao-hon-nua-nhung-thay-doi-dang-chu-y-tren-thi-truong-tieu-thu-nam-2025-308209.html