Recent reports from the USDA paint a mixed picture of coffee production by country. Production is expected to increase in Brazil and recover in Indonesia, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, and Nicaragua. In contrast, the outlook looks negative for Guatemala, Costa Rica, and especially Honduras.
Coffee price today 6/21/2024
World coffee prices increased sharply on both London and New York exchanges, with robusta increasing by 1.85% and arabica increasing by 2.43%.
Domestic coffee prices, after falling in early May, have rebounded sharply and remained at a high level.
Coffee prices on the world market increased while being under downward pressure as the new crop coffee harvest in Brazil entered its peak period. This made the market expect new supplies from Brazil, especially Arabica coffee, to help relieve the pressure on supply that has lasted in recent months.
Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices are still being supported mainly by concerns about supply shortages from Vietnam. This is also the main driving force behind the recovery of the entire coffee market after a sharp decline in mid-May.
Global coffee supplies have been hit by heavy rains in Brazil and a heatwave in Vietnam, and international experts say the situation is unlikely to improve anytime soon. Ongoing weather problems in major coffee-producing countries continue to push prices higher.
Drought and pests have severely affected coffee productivity in many places. Vietnam's coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, down to 1.47 million tons, the lowest in 4 years, putting pressure on the supply of robusta in the world market.
According to a recent assessment by the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), the domestic coffee supply is now almost exhausted, and the inventories of businesses and farmers are not large, so the export volume from now until the end of the season (September 2024) will gradually decrease even though coffee prices are at a record high.
In fact, data from the General Department of Customs shows that Vietnam's coffee exports in May 2024 reached 95,000 tons, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline in export volume. In the first 8 months of the 2023/2024 crop year (October 2023 to May 2024), Vietnam exported nearly 1.2 million tons of coffee, equivalent to 80% of the current crop year's output and down 7% compared to the same period last crop year. This shows that the domestic coffee supply from now until the new crop year is not much left.
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| Domestic coffee prices on June 20 increased by VND1,200/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Rodeo West) |
According to the World & Vietnam, at the end of the trading session on June 20, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange continued to increase sharply, with the July 2024 delivery term increasing by 169 USD, trading at 4,374 USD/ton. The September 2024 delivery term increased by 116 USD, trading at 4,176 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased again, with the July 2024 delivery term up 4.1 cents, trading at 230.35 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the September 2024 delivery term increased 3.7 cents, trading at 228.25 cents/lb. Average trading volume.
Domestic coffee prices on June 20 increased by VND1,200/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Vietnam’s coffee supply is running out while the outlook for the next crop is not very optimistic. The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) recently predicted that coffee prices will increase again, mainly due to investors’ increasing concerns about the supply prospects from Vietnam.
Hedge funds have increased their net buying positions in anticipation that robusta supply from Vietnam will continue to be scarce in the coming time.
Vietnam's robusta coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year is estimated at 24 million bags, the lowest level in 13 years, due to unfavorable weather, according to Volcafe, a trading house.
According to a report by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Affairs Office (USDA Post), Vietnam's coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is forecast to be around 29 million bags (60 kg/bag), down slightly from the estimated 29.1 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year. Of which, robusta coffee output will reach 27.85 million bags, down from 28 million bags in the previous crop year. Meanwhile, arabica output will increase slightly to 1.15 million bags.
Vietnam’s coffee production estimate for 2023-24 has been revised up 6% from the previous forecast to 29.1 million bags. Higher coffee prices in 2023-24 will encourage farmers to invest more in production to reduce losses in harvests and other inputs.
Instead of switching completely to other crops, coffee farmers are now using intercropping to diversify and increase their revenue. The USDA Post believes that the total coffee acreage in Vietnam will remain stable at around 600,000 hectares for the next few years. Farmers can earn twice as much from growing durian as from growing coffee. However, rising coffee prices have helped stabilize coffee acreage and it remains an important crop in highland provinces such as Lam Dong and Dak Lak.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2162024-gia-ca-phe-bat-tang-manh-ap-luc-nguon-cung-giua-vu-trien-vong-hang-tu-viet-nam-ra-sao-275742.html
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