GDP in 2024 will break through, Vietnam will accelerate into the era of growth
VTC News•09/01/2025
(VTC News) - With the indicators achieved in 2024, Vietnam is a bright spot in economic growth in the region and the world, this is the basis for moving towards double-digit growth.
Impressive growth According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, General Director of the General Statistics Office, in the context of the general difficulties of the global economy, Vietnam's economy continues to show a clear recovery trend, with growth gradually improving month by month and quarter by quarter, inflation lower than the target, major balances are ensured, and results in many important areas have reached and exceeded targets. Notably, Vietnam is among the few countries with high growth rates in the region and the world. Currently, the world economy is still recording a weak and uneven recovery among key economies. Many organizations forecast that the world economy this year and next year will still recover weakly and face many risks. The reason is the great challenge due to the complicated developments after the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical instability still exists. Vietnam alone maintains macroeconomic stability, inflation is not too high and the economic recovery rate is quite good. In particular, the most impressive thing is that GDP in 2024 increases steadily, with each quarter higher than the previous quarter. In 2024, GDP increased by 7.09% compared to the previous year, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly. Foreign direct investment in Vietnam reached 25.35 billion USD, the highest level ever. Inflation was also controlled at an appropriate level, actively supporting economic growth. The average consumer price index (CPI) in 2024 compared to the previous year increased by 3.63%, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly of 4-4.5%.
GDP and VA growth rates of regions by quarter in 2024. (Source: General Statistics Office)
Export and import of goods in 2024. (Source: General Statistics Office)
International visitors to Vietnam in 2024 by region. (Source: General Statistics Office)
"Vietnam's economic growth rate of over 7% is an outstanding achievement, surpassing the IMF's forecast and compared to neighboring countries, Vietnam has the highest economic growth rate in ASEAN. It can be said that Vietnam has overcome the severe consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, domestic enterprises are growing stronger and recovering, these are very remarkable achievements", said economic expert Le Dang Doanh. Mr. Doanh analyzed that this result was first of all due to the achievements of the agricultural sector. In the difficult world situation, agricultural safety is the most important factor, some countries with food shortages have become chaotic. Second, Vietnam has developed industry well and exports still hit a record. In recent years, more than 70% of Vietnam's export value belongs to FDI enterprises. Talking about the double-digit growth target, Mr. Doanh commented that although it is difficult, it is not impossible to achieve. " Vietnam has great potential with a population of 100 million, but currently there are only 800,000 businesses. If we develop 100 million people into 2-3 million businesses, we can completely achieve this goal ," he said.
Domestic and international experts highly appreciate Vietnam's economic growth next year. (Illustration photo)
Optimistic forecast for Vietnam's economy Seasia Stats, a reputable statistics site on Southeast Asian countries, recently assessed that with an economic scale of about 506 billion USD, Vietnam will be in the TOP 15 largest economies in Asia. This assessment was made based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to Seasia Stats, Vietnam's economy is growing rapidly thanks to the boom in manufacturing and foreign investment. This figure increased compared to the GDP of 433 billion USD and the 34th position in 2023. In 2020, Vietnam's GDP reached 346 billion USD, ranking 37th in the world. Meanwhile, the independent economic forecasting and analysis center CEBR (UK) forecasts that in 2025, Vietnam's GDP per capita will reach 4,783 USD, a significant increase compared to 2024, bringing Vietnam closer to the target of upper middle income. Vietnam is expected to rank 124th in the world in terms of per capita income, marking a step forward in improving people's lives. Referring to the main factor attracting foreign investment in Vietnam, the WB expert emphasized that Vietnam's business environment brings stability to investors, which is a particularly important factor. The international community also highly appreciates the Vietnamese Government's continuous efforts in improving the business environment. Thanks to that, Vietnam can attract a large amount of foreign investment capital. Sharing the same view, Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director in Vietnam, also said that despite global uncertainties, Vietnam's economy has recovered strongly and continued to maintain growth momentum due to improved industrial production and strong trade growth. Specifically, the industrial sector continues to be the main driver of growth, as external demand for key electronic export items contributes to increased production. Vietnam's economic recovery is also supported by the recovery of the service sector and stable agricultural output. In a recent report on investment opportunities in Vietnam, expert Jacqueline Broers, Deputy Portfolio Manager at the UK-based Utilico Investment Fund, also assessed that Vietnam is one of the 20 fastest growing countries in the world. One of the important drivers for Vietnam's strong growth is its golden population structure. " Vietnam has set a target of becoming an upper-middle-income country by 2035 and a high-income country by 2045. We see that Vietnam is benefiting from a highly educated and affordable workforce, with an adult literacy rate of up to 98%. This is one of the reasons why Vietnam is becoming more and more attractive to foreign investors looking to diversify their supply chains, for example Apple.Foreign direct investment flows into Vietnam are strong and sustainable. Despite the supply chain issues, if the Vietnamese government can navigate these factors, Utilico believes that Vietnam has the potential to become a favorite destination for investors in Asia, "said expert Jacqueline Broers. In its 2025 strategy report, MB Securities Company (MBS) forecasts that Vietnam's exports will increase by 9-10% in 2025 thanks to vibrant global trade and regional agreements. Meanwhile, HSBC Vietnam experts believe that after a difficult start in the first quarter of 2024, the domestic economic picture has been mostly more positive as the recovery momentum has gradually strengthened over the months of 2024, quickly bringing Vietnam back as a growth star in the ASEAN bloc. What to do to move towards double-digit growth? Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV, Member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, stated: " We have sufficient grounds to affirm that In 2025, the economy can ensure good growth. In the baseline scenario, we give a figure of 8%, a more positive scenario can grow from 9 - 9.5% ”. The basis for the above forecasts, Mr. Luc said, is mainly based on old and new growth drivers, including exports, investment, and consumption. Regarding new drivers, it is related to digital transformation, green transformation, regional linkages, institutional reform, and apparatus organization, thereby creating confidence, stimulating excitement, and stimulating consumption. However, we need many solutions such as diversifying trade promotion, taking advantage of FTAs. Along with that, we must stimulate private investment from about 7% in 2024 to 8-9% in 2025. In particular, Mr. Luc emphasized that public investment must continue to be promoted. " Recently, some ministries, branches, and localities have disbursed quite well, but there are also ministries, branches, and localities that have disbursed slowly, " he said.
According to expert Can Van Luc, in a positive scenario, Vietnam's economy in 2025 could grow from 9 - 9.5%.
Sharing the same view, Dr. Le Duy Binh, CEO of Economica Vietnam, said that if Vietnam wants to have high economic growth, the old growth drivers such as export and import need to do better, operate better, have higher quality, and higher efficiency. “ We must increase value content, import less, and increase exports to directly contribute to total demand and GDP. The quality of import and export must also be better, less dependent on foreign raw materials, while increasing domestic raw material production, creating jobs for domestic workers, especially in rural areas, remote areas. Along with that, we need to gradually shift to export sectors with higher added value, and continue to expand export markets to other countries, ” said Mr. Binh. In addition, we must pay more attention to the investment sector, including public investment and private sector investment. With public investment, we need to pay attention to both the quantity and quality of investment, bringing higher economic value, faster disbursement, and shorter procedures. Meanwhile, the private investment sector has grown very slowly in the past 5 years compared to previous years. Therefore, we need to pay more attention: "We must create a favorable business environment, encourage the entrepreneurial spirit of new enterprises and the adventurous spirit of large enterprises". Mr. Binh also emphasized the need to continue to complete large projects, key national projects such as highways, airports, ports, nuclear power, urban railways... " Those large projects, if implemented well, will contribute positively to the process of stimulating growth, changing the face of infrastructure as well as the national position. If we do well, we can also mobilize resources from the State, the private sector and foreign countries, thereby contributing directly to the growth process ", he said.
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